The second installment into my State to State Race outlook moves to two states that may be competitive, and at the same time may not be so competitive.
First, lets take a look at Arizona. With McCain as the nominee, it makes be believe that this typical battleground state should lean more toward the GOP side in the presidential race. Arizona will not have a Senate or Governor race this year, but there are a few House races to look in to. District 1 will be an open seat this year, and in an area that is leaning toward the democrats at the moment, it is a place that could be hotly contested. Another race to look at is District 5 where J.D. Hayworth will battle to regain the seat he lost to Harold Mitchell. District 8 may also be one to look at in the future.
Next let's look at Arkansas. Assuming that Obama gets the nomination over Clinton, McCain should be the clear favorite in a state that has been trending Republican in previous elections. Early polls have shown it very close though, so there is no choice but to label it a Weak Hold. Not much else is expected to happen in Arkansas, as popular Senator Mark Pryor looks to cruise to an easy victory and retain his seat for Democrats in the senate. Also, there is no competitive house races at this point and no Governor race will occur in this cycle.
Stay tuned for: California, Colorado
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State to State Races: Alabama, Alaska
The first offical look to the 2008 races starts with Alabama and Alaska. I am looking to do two at a time, but if I get short on time, I may have to resort to doing just one. Expect at least two a week until I am finished, although I will do everything possible to do more than that. Click on the highlighted state to view the page. Or simply naviagate throgh the senate page.
In Alabama, John McCain shouldn't have much trouble in defeating the Democratic nominee, especially if it is Clinton that gets the nod. If Obama wins, it will likely be closer, but nothing that McCain should sweat over, at least not at this point. Alabama should also be safe in the senate race, as Jeff Sessions doesn't seem to have much to worry about.
In Alaska, the GOP support will remain solid as it has through previous elections. However, Senator Ted Stevens and Congressmen Don Young are both on the road to strong opposition, as both are having scandal problems at the moment. Both may be retiring, and both may be defeated in the primary, but as long as they are in the race, GOP victories in November are much less than certain.
Stay tuned for: Arizona, Arkansas
In Alabama, John McCain shouldn't have much trouble in defeating the Democratic nominee, especially if it is Clinton that gets the nod. If Obama wins, it will likely be closer, but nothing that McCain should sweat over, at least not at this point. Alabama should also be safe in the senate race, as Jeff Sessions doesn't seem to have much to worry about.
In Alaska, the GOP support will remain solid as it has through previous elections. However, Senator Ted Stevens and Congressmen Don Young are both on the road to strong opposition, as both are having scandal problems at the moment. Both may be retiring, and both may be defeated in the primary, but as long as they are in the race, GOP victories in November are much less than certain.
Stay tuned for: Arizona, Arkansas
2008: State to State Races
Today I started my projections for each state. I decided to start with my home state of Georgia just to get things going and make sure I had everything in place. After today, however, I will by going in order starting with Alabama.
To look at the Georgia page, click here. I would love to know your thoughts on the page and any suggestions would be more than welcome.
To look at the Georgia page, click here. I would love to know your thoughts on the page and any suggestions would be more than welcome.
Battlegrounds, Obama and McCain
Going into the 2008 election, we should see a majority of the battleground states from last election pop up again. What could be intresting, certainly if Obama gets the democratic nomination, is that we could see a string of new battlegrounds appear this cycle. If Obama wins the nomination, I would expect to see much closer races in the south. Maybe not enough to win any, but to force the GOP to have to push money in places the haven't had to in a while. At the same time, McCain gets a lot of benefits from his area also.
Lets start with Obama winning the nomination. Southern states have been pretty favorable to Obama thus far in polling. At this point, Louisiana has been polling tight, along with Arkansas and West Virgina. Missouri and Virgina could also be competitive. On a rather suprising note, Georgia has been very close also. In every case, I still believe that the GOP will win all of these states, even if many are much closer than in previous elections. I have a hard time believing that Georgia will be competitive very long, but it may be 5 or so points better than in the past election.
On McCain, expect him do well in the midwest, especially in his state's neighbor of New Mexico. New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have been doing well for McCain thus far, which is really good news because they are all battleground states. Florida is a place I expect McCain do better also, but he has got to find a way to satisfy the south or his campaign his in deep trouble.
The biggest toss-ups to me are Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsion, Minnisota, Oregan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
I expect all of these to be pretty close, but really look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Those have the potential to really sway the election.
Lets start with Obama winning the nomination. Southern states have been pretty favorable to Obama thus far in polling. At this point, Louisiana has been polling tight, along with Arkansas and West Virgina. Missouri and Virgina could also be competitive. On a rather suprising note, Georgia has been very close also. In every case, I still believe that the GOP will win all of these states, even if many are much closer than in previous elections. I have a hard time believing that Georgia will be competitive very long, but it may be 5 or so points better than in the past election.
On McCain, expect him do well in the midwest, especially in his state's neighbor of New Mexico. New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have been doing well for McCain thus far, which is really good news because they are all battleground states. Florida is a place I expect McCain do better also, but he has got to find a way to satisfy the south or his campaign his in deep trouble.
The biggest toss-ups to me are Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsion, Minnisota, Oregan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
I expect all of these to be pretty close, but really look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Those have the potential to really sway the election.
What Will Happen?
Tonight I am leaning towards Hillary having a good day, at least good enough to stay in the race. I wouldn't even be suprised if Hillary turns the tide tonight and keeps us all guessing.
John McCain could wrap up the delegate count tonight and end the needlessly prolonged campaign of Mike Huckabee. Despite that, you have to admit that his Saturday Night Live Skit was pretty funny.
John McCain could wrap up the delegate count tonight and end the needlessly prolonged campaign of Mike Huckabee. Despite that, you have to admit that his Saturday Night Live Skit was pretty funny.
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