It will be a big night for both parties as the run-off for senate in my home state of Georgia. Polls have shown a consistent 3-5 point advantage for Chambliss, which is welcomed by Republicans as the Minnesota race continues to be recounted. My own projection is pointing to a 54-46% win for the Republican, but one has to wonder who will show up the second time.
I think there is a good chance that Chambliss wins by a comfortable margin. Here are my list of reasons.
1- The Black Vote
With the race only centered on Chambliss and Martin, I do not see the high black turnout this time around. The African-American vote was ridiculously higher than normal due to Obama on the ticket, but I don't expect those kind of numbers again.
2- Previous Vote
Saxby Chambliss won on election night. He was 0.2% from claiming an actual majority. This was with the high democratic numbers and again, the African-American vote. I would have to assume that his three point margin should actually increase.
3- Fear of Filibuster-Proof Majority for Democrats
This is still Georgia. Saxby is not the most popular person in my state, but he is a Republican in a red state. Many GOPers are scared that the Democrats will take that majority, as Minnesota is still unsettled. Even many independents do not want one party with complete domination, and that certainly plays into the hands of Chambliss.
As for Minnesota, I have been looking very often on Coldheartedtruth for the latest information on the senate seat in his home state. Right now, the Coleman camp still maintains a lead of 135 votes with 92% of the state recounted. Many are starting to believe that Coleman will hold on despite the relentless efforts by Democrats to take the seat. For Republicans in Minnesota, you have to be thankful that there is no run-off, because Franken probably wins, especially with the backing of many big name Democrats in a blue state.
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