I'm Back

I'm am very sorry for the delay and such. I'm going through a tough time in my life and I needed a few days to think things out. I don't want to really get into it but it was tough on me and my family, but I'm thankful to God for helping me though these tough times and I feel good about the future. I did recieve a couple of e-mails wishing me the best, and I appreciate that and it did mean a lot to me.

Now moving forward, McCain is not looking good early on in his bid for president. Just as I expected a month ago, Obama is soaring since he secured the nomination for president. Once my next projection is up and running you should see Obama picking up Michigan, Missouri, and Virgina. If the current trend continues by the next projection look for Indiana, Nevada, and Florida to follow. It is a tough time for McCain at the moment, but don't make the mistake of thinking Obama isn't vurlnable to a fallout.

Short Break

I am very under the weather right now, and I am finding it hard to focus at this very moment. I am hoping not to be out long, but I simply can't do it right now. I will update soon.

Quick Updates Coming, Upcoming Vaction

I am in the process of updating the President, Senate, House, and Governor pages today. I am actually tied up today, but I am working hard to complete them by the middle of the day. The presidential race has actually been updated, but the map I had been using was deleted by accident, so I am looking to find another one, hopefully a better one at that. Although I plan to have the actual pages completed, the state by state pages will have to be updated later.

I thought I would let you know I am planning a short vaction to South Carolina next week. I may be leaving Monday, but I am considering leaving a couple of days later. I will wait and see. I shouldn't be gone more than a few days.

State to State Races: Washington, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Wyoming

We have reached the end of the 'State to State Races' tour. I actually got this done rather quickly considering the amount of imformation I was forced to put down. It took me just a month before I made it through 50 states and the District of Columbia and today we come to a close.

Washington- I can't wait to see the Governor rematch between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi. If you don't know that story by now, you have missed quite a bit. After a few recounts showing both candidates with a win, Gregoire was the one given the Governor's mansion, and a huge rematch is brewing.

West Virgina- I pretty much expect John McCain to pull off a narrow but safe victory in this state, but the Democrats will dominate the rest of the board.

Wisconsin- George W. Bush was very close to taking this state twice, but came up short both times. John McCain will certainly be competitive in this state but the jury is out on if he can capture enough votes to win.

Wyoming- Due to the passing of Craig Thomas, there is two senate seats up for grabs this time around. Both will be taken by the Republican, as the GOP should take the whole board in this state.

Stay tuned for: A wild and crazy election season!

Next Presidential Analysis

I am ending my 'State to State Races' tour within the hour, so I thought is was a good time to tell you that I will be updating my presidential anaylsis tommorow. I guess I'll let off a hint and tell you that Barack Obama will again be leading John McCain, but actually by a smaller number than my intial projection. I plan to put it on there around noon tomorrow, so keep on the lookout.

State to State Races: Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virgina

This is my next to last update, the other one will be up in just a few hours so be sure to check out the end of the whole thing. Today, we will start with...

Tennessee- I think Tennessee will fall easily into the GOP's hands, and I think Lamar Alexander will retain his seat in the senate will a comfortable win. If Bob Corker, who narrowly won his senate seat, wins despite the blue wave, I think Alexander will hold his seat as the incumbant.

Texas- The mega state of Texas will be won agian by the GOP, and the senate should be close but comfortable in 2008.

Utah- The GOP's most conservitive state, will remain that way once again in 2008 as the GOP is VERY safe all the way down the board.

Vermont- The Democrats will be very comfortable in this state, save the Governor's race where James Douglas (R) should cruise to a victory for the GOP.

Virgina- This state has been trending democrat lately and thus far polls have been close. However, McCain will win this state and take it's electoral votes. Farther down the list, presents good oppurtunities for the Democrats to take a senate and house race.

Stay tuned for: Washington, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Wyoming

State to State Races: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota

Wow, we are getting closer and closer to the end. In fact, by tomorrow night we will have reached the end of the tour. Were not there yet though, so lets keep going to...

Pennsylvania- Don't count out this state for the GOP. Bush has kept this state close twice and McCain should do the same. One of the big rays of hope for the GOP came during the Democratic primary, when 1 in 4 of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain if Obama was on the ballot. Another large number said they would not vote. Obviously I don't buy that going into November, but if there could be 'just enough' votes trailed away from Obama, McCain could pull the upset.

Rhode Island- What can you possibly say about this state? All democrats are safe down the board, and they will have little challenge from the GOP.

South Carolina- Expect the Democrats to com closer than in past elections in the national election, but don't expect things to be very competitive. Early polls do shows things closer than usual, but I don't see much coming from it.

South Dakota- On the national scale at least, the GOP will win quite easily. Akward that a state that votes so strongly for the Republican would have little representation under it. I do expect Democrat Tim Johnson to garner some sort of challenge, but I have a hard time believing that he will lose. The democrat in the house is also safe.

Stay tuned for: Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virgina

Third Party Factor

I just had a thought thinking about the upcoming election, and that being the factor that the third paties will have on this election as opposed to previous elections. Everyone know about Ralph Nader, who is running again as an Idependent, and how he made an impact on the 2000 election. Not to mention how bad Republicans faired due to the large impact of Ross Perot in 1992, and 1996. Independents and third parties can make a big difference in the election, and for some reason, I get the feeling it may play a role again in 2008. Take, for example, a recent poll by CNN that includes both Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate. Barack Obama leads McCain by a 47% to 43% margin. Nader draws an astounding 6%, and even Barr draws a modest 2% in that poll. Without those candidates, it is a 49% to 46% win for Obama.

Bob Barr, a former Republican from Georgia, may take votes away from John McCain. Ralph Nader may take away from both. As seen, when those candidates are included, McCain is the one that really suffers the most. Nader and Barr may both fall off the map as time goes along. Nader had the same trend going into 2004, and as he failed to make the ballot in many states, the less affect he had on the overall election.

So logically, we could run into another 2000, where one party feels cheated due to the prospects of the third party candidates. But moving forward, is John McCain the one that would really take the bigger hit? Ralph Nader is far left, as is most of the Libertarian Party, so it seems like Democrats unhappy with Obama would be the ones trailing to a third party. Then again, maybe right-of-center Republicans will cling to Bob Barr, a former Republican.

Intreasting to think about as November draws closer and closer...

State to State Races: Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon

I only have three states lined up for today, but granted I have been obviously busy this week so lets continue on with a couple of big states.

First let us start with the great state of Ohio. Ohio was a disaster for the GOP in 2006. They lost their senate seat, governor seat, and a big house seat as they threw out the scandal-ridden GOP candidates. So we move on to this election, and Ohio seems to be up in the air once again. Bush narrowly took the state in 2000 and 2004, but again with the recent nationwide rise of the Democratic party, it will be difficult for McCain to retain the state.

Oklahoma doesn't offer very much for the 2008 election. John McCain will easily win the state, and all of it's senators and house members are safe for now.

And then there is Oregon. People seem to little remember how close George W. Bush was to winning this state in 2000, and even though John Kerry stretched it to a four point win, this isn't a lock for the democrats. This one may be a close battleground by the time of the election.

Stay tuned for: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota

What a Day!

I have made so many changes up to this point that I think my head is getting ready to explode...and still I have a ton of work to do, most apparent in the President, Senate, House, and Governor pages. For some reason all of those links were transfered into the new link bar, and I have not figured out a way to put them into links. If I am unable to do so, I will have to go in and do manually, which requires hours of work. Either way, I plan to have it all done by Sunday night. Keep on the lookout!

UPDATE: Turns out I was able to go in and get it all done last night, so all the pages have been updated. I would certianly like to expand on the new design, and so I will continue to do work. I am very happy with how the page turned out, and I am excited about it looking forward.

Overhaul

I am trying to do some updating to the graphic design to the site, and as is obviously seen, it is a real mess right now. Hopefully I will have this worked out by days end. Again sorry for the mess!

A Few Notes

For those asking about how I will do updates with the presidential elections, along with the rest of the projections, my plan is to update every month until about September. Once September roles around I will do weekly updates up until election day.

Another point I wanted to point out is that I am slightly changing a part of my election formula. In the 2006 races, I gave far too much benefit to the incumbant. As 2006 came to a close, it was obvious that it did very little for the numerous Republicans that feel victim to the Democratic wave. I will not be taking it out of the formula, only drawing it a back a bit so that it is much more accurate to the polls. I add a section to my page showing how I do my formula soon.

State to State Races: Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota

We continue on today, as we closer and closer to the end, with a look at states from midwest, New England, South, and Great Plains.

Well start with Nebraska. Like Maine, it is split into districts that represent electoral votes. And as Maine's districts will all go to the democrats, all of Nebraskas will go to the GOP. The GOP's senate seat should be safe, and there are no competitive house races.

Next there is Nevada. Intially, I projected that the Democrats would pick this seat up. That is the current projection you will find on that page, but poll after poll indicates that John McCain is doing very well in this state and is the favorite to win this state. Other than it's battleground status, there is no senate, governor, or competitive house races.

And then the battleground of New Hampshire. It is nearly the oppisite of Nevada. I intially thought this would be a great chance for a win for the GOP, but polls now indicate that Barack Obama has had the slight advantage. A huge race is brewing in the Senate, as Republican John Sununu is in serious danger of losing his seat to the democratic challenger. There is also a competitive house race.

We move on to New Jersey. For a time in 2004, New Jersey seemed to be polling close. I doubt that will ever be the case in 2008. The democrat should easily win the race. In the house, two open seats that the GOP may lose, are on the table this year. The GOP will be glad if they can keep at least one of those seats.

On to New Mexico. Yet another battleground state that may go down to the wire, I expect this state to change colors time and time again as the election draws near. New Mexico is another state the GOP may lose a senate seat.

The mega state of New York follows. You can't say much about New York, other than it is very safe for the Democrat. They have four house races to look into though.

And then there is North Carolina. North Carolina may not be as safe for Republicans as it should be, but don't expect anything dramatic this coming election.

Finally we reach North Dakota. The GOP will domintate the presidential race here, along with the Governor race, despite how much they have lost in the senate and hosue.


Stay tuned for: Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregan

New Poll

New poll up now. It is a generic ballot asking you to make your choice for the next president of the United States. Have at it!