I'm am very sorry for the delay and such. I'm going through a tough time in my life and I needed a few days to think things out. I don't want to really get into it but it was tough on me and my family, but I'm thankful to God for helping me though these tough times and I feel good about the future. I did recieve a couple of e-mails wishing me the best, and I appreciate that and it did mean a lot to me.
Now moving forward, McCain is not looking good early on in his bid for president. Just as I expected a month ago, Obama is soaring since he secured the nomination for president. Once my next projection is up and running you should see Obama picking up Michigan, Missouri, and Virgina. If the current trend continues by the next projection look for Indiana, Nevada, and Florida to follow. It is a tough time for McCain at the moment, but don't make the mistake of thinking Obama isn't vurlnable to a fallout.
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12 comments:
Obama is not soaring. If you check out the other blog site 'cold hearted truth' you will see that Obama is 'soaring' in 'polls' only.
Those polls he's soaring in are media based (surprise!) in private polling firms; it's neck and neck at best. Polls that primarily poll democrats...well; yea; Obama is 'soaring' [careful how we hear truth]
Republicans will be just fine in 2008 elections, WH, Senate, and House.
A recent msnbc article tried to show that Obama is moving to the center on his positions once held.
Don't believe it. First, if the media admits he's moving TO the center...than one would have to say 'where has he been?' Since it wasn't with 'the political right'
ahem...we can safely assume he was over on the .....
So, anyone who thinks a person can change thier hard and fast thinking over-night is not quite
experienced in reality. REAL change of understanding why right is right and wrong is wrong (actions of course) takes much reflection of self. Changing positions 'just for the cause of
gaining the most friendships' is
not leader but politician. There is a difference.
When one knows TRUTH one lives TRUTH; 'hated' or not.
and "if they hated HIM, you can be sure they will hate 'us' also"
LIVE 'the TRUTH' anyway...the rewards are eternal.
Anonymous, I don't know where you get your information, but Obama is soaring in polls conducted by everyone - including Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and other firms that have historically been accurate to within less than a percentage point. Quinnipiac University is one of the most accurate pollsters on the planet, and they have Obama taking the lead in four key swing states. Any rational reading of these unbiased polls gives Obama at least a 4 point lead over McCain, and more importantly, all the Kerry states (though MI & NH are tenuous) plus IA, CO, OH, NM and probably VA. Even IN is close, which is bizzare. I ignore the biased polls - but I base my judgment of bias on historical accuracy, not some sort of conspiracy hypothesis that says "the media is controlled by the left, so all the polls they report must be biased to the left, even if they seem to nail it every time."
Now, that being said, it is only June, and everything can change. But dude, the polls showing Obama currently doing well have been done by the polling companies that nail it more than any of them.
sarasotajoe writes:
anonymous I don't know where you get your information...Obama is soaring...
first, if you will re-read my first few lines; you will see I get my info from 'cold hearted truth' blog (check it out, election junkie has their link)
second, also stated in my first few lines: I stated he is 'soaring' in POLLS only. [and those polls are defined at cold hearted truth]
third: you yourself said: 'Any rational reading of these unbiased polls gives Obama at least a 4 point lead over McCain.' uhmmmm...
a 4 point lead is within the 3 point margin of error...if that's
'soaring' by your standard...
ye-aaaaaaaaah....sure ... no problem heh heh.
fourth: you state: 'I ignore the biased polls [the biased polls would be those that don't see it as you see it? heh heh] you sound biased in how you read poll data.
- but I base my judgment of bias on historical accuracy, not some sort of conspiracy hypothesis that says "the media is controlled by the left, so all the polls they report must be biased to the left]
I give you the accuracy of the media supportive of those leaning leftward...
first the link of Obama's left lean: http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/
Now...how the media being left leaning
http://www.gargaro.com/bias.html
1 + 1 = 2 (DISPUTE IT)
P.S. of that factual site on media bias: here's one excerpt:
The media openly admitting bias....
"The societal purpose of the media is to inculcate and defend the economic, social, and political agenda of privileged groups that dominate the domestic society and the state. The media serve this purpose in many ways: through the selection of topics, distribution of concerns, framing of issues, filtering of information, emphasis and tone, and by keeping debate within the bounds of acceptable premises."
Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky, Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media (1988), Pantheon Books, NY
"The old argument that the networks and other 'media elites' have a liberal bias is so blatantly true that it's hardly worth discussing anymore. No, we don't sit around in dark corners and plan how we will slant the news. It comes naturally to most reporters"
CBS News correspondent Bernard Goldberg, Feb 13, 1996 Wall Street Journal op-ed.
Source - Times Mirror Center for the people and the Press, May 1995
Die hard Republicans (those who love MASSIVE debt, wars, big govt./less freedom, the collapse of our economy/dollar, ETC.) had BETTER come to terms with what is going on in our country today. This is an HISTORIC event. With the hijacking of the GOP by radical components of SEVERAL special interest, the Democratic party today is the only CONSERVATIVE party left. It's also the only Left of center party ... unless we are to enter an era of one party rule (which is NOT to my liking) the GOP MUST reorganize after the pending Nov. disaster and become a TRUE conservative alternative. This means they MUST reject ALL radicals (religious, environmental, corp. neocon/fascist, ETC.) and re-form as a new party. (along the lines of the Canadian/British right)
You can choose to stay in denial if you wish, but all that will do is make you feel even worse when election day comes.
I seriously doubt that John McCain would be able to make any remarkable turnaround in this year's presidential election in the near future given voters' continual anger about the Bush administration and the GOP overall. He has already lost the presidential election as soon as he reemerged as the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, which he ultimately has become the nominee. I'm afraid that many future GOP presidential nominees that follow would suffer virtually the same fate as McCain or even worse since they would mostly be solid conservatives, none of whom will have any chance of getting elected president. Therefore, the wisest thing for McCain to do right now is to drop out of the presidential race ASAP in order to spare himself from his inevitable defeat at the hands of President-elect Barack Obama.
annonymous said "the biased polls would be those that don't see it as you see it? heh heh] you sound biased in how you read poll data."
Actually annonymous, I ignore polls with a bias in either direction. I model my poll reading on Gerry Dale, a Republican who ran a great site in '04 called Dale's ECB. He called every state except WI. Based on polls. The margin of error of 4 points is the margin of one poll with sample size of 600. When you look at, for example, the Quinnipiac polls, with much larger samples, the margin of error shrinks towards 2, with a 95% probability. When you combine reliable polls, subtract their historical bias (in either direction), you end up with a much smaller margin of error. That is how Mr. Dale managed to nail the 2004 electoral map. He didn't complain about liberal poll bias, he studied the polling companies to determine their historical accuracy (ourcampaigns.com is a good start). Some tilt left, others tilt right, some are quite good. Obama's current lead is minimum 4 pts. I'd call it 6 pts with a 2 pt margin of error. His electoral college lead is significant. Cold Hearted Truth currently has Obama ahead by 75 electoral votes. Real Clear politics, a right wing poll watching site, has Obama's lead at 7 pts.
Polls, aside, any reasonable reading of the country's mood will tell you that all of the following are quite likely: Obama will win more Republican votes than Kerry did. McCain will win fewer Dem votes than Bush did. Barr will take more votes from McCain than Nader will from Obama. More republicans will stay home than Dems. Independents will break for Obama. All bad news for McCain.
And as far as a left wing media is concerned, the entire media establishment is complicit in enabling Bush to take us to war with crap for reasons. The NY Times was caught printing lies that promoted the war, and even the right's favorite whipping boy, Dan Rather, rolled over for Bush in 2002-2003. Left wing my butt. Here's a nice article about how the MSM has given McCain a free ride: http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080707/alterman
sarasotajoe: first the comment by anonymous was not the anonymous who
initially wrote to you. So, to distinguish; let me sign as Dom.
Anonymous Dom.
Now, again I give you: first the link of Obama's left lean: http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/ Now...how the media being left leaning http://www.gargaro.com/bias.html
scroll down a bit and find the article where the media admitted to leaning leftward. In that article you will find a book.
The media openly admitting bias....
"The societal purpose of the media is to inculcate and defend the economic, social, and political agenda of privileged groups that dominate the domestic society and the state. The media serve this purpose in many ways: through the selection of topics, distribution of concerns, framing of issues, filtering of information, emphasis and tone, and by keeping debate within the bounds of acceptable premises."
Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky, Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media (1988), Pantheon Books, NY
"The old argument that the networks and other 'media elites' have a liberal bias is so blatantly true that it's hardly worth discussing anymore. No, we don't sit around in dark corners and plan how we will slant the news. It comes naturally to most reporters"
CBS News correspondent Bernard Goldberg, Feb 13, 1996 Wall Street Journal op-ed.
Source - Times Mirror Center for the people and the Press, May 1995
As for Cold Hearted Truth having
Obama 'ahead' by 75 electoral votes, you should read between the lines: as of June 30:
EC Projection:
Obama - 306
McCain - 232
That's 74 electoral votes;
and that's hardly 'soaring'...ESPECIALLY when
neither candidate has began debates with the other, especially when neither candidate has yet to choose a VP running mate. At present Obama's 'soar' is merely
'hyped up media talk'/and despite that the media keeps proclaiming
Obama is collecting so much funds;
They barely mention McCain has caught up with Obama in fundraising in just one month.
(Obama collected funds took several months; McCain has 'caught up' in one month, reading between lines: that says there's a lot of people out there who don't take give opinions to pollsters.)
THE ISSUES haven't been discussed;
yet 'the college educated' urban
dwellers are so quick to embrace
Obama. (says much on what 'educated' means)
ahhh yes, 'issues' ... to understand issues; one must understand objective TRUTH and weigh a candidates words to TRUTH on living the good life that is understood deeply. DEPTH of understanding comes from YEARS lived. Who supports Obama? 'college youth' ...20 somethings. They barely have begun the living of life; yet they just know 'a HUMAN man' called Obama is
going to be change a nation.
The only change Obama wants is to
bring this nation to socialism.
Changing this nation from a we the people self governing system with REPRESENTATIVES to a 'we the government' will 'TAKE CARE OF YOU'
Independent adults don't need to be 'taken care of' / Obama supporters want 'government' to provide what they have yet to figure out they can give to themselves and remain FREE.
more reading between the lines Sarasotajoe on this latest poll of electoral votes by cold hearted truth:
EC Projection:
Obama - 306
McCain - 232
While these numbers show a 74 point 'lead' by Obama; it also shows that McCain needs only 38 electoral votes to get that magic number '270'
The number of 'states' (ie: people) McCain needs to convince
he's the leader for THE GOOD is less than the number Obama needs to convince.
...Obama is 'weak' in many state's.
not strong. not solid. Obama's strongest 'states' are MONEY oriented states. Which does say much about what drives democrats.
ie: it's not Republicans who love that green stuff.
The good folk of this nation, will soon see through Obama's rhetoric of being 'for all' ... Obama is for HIS PARTY...and that makes him
a politician. Not a leader.
There is a difference.
p.s. Sarasotajoe: 'The good folk of this nation, will soon see through Obama's rhetoric of being 'for all'
I took a hard look at Obama's promises...all of them are GIVES
to those OBAMA and HIS PARTY declare 'disadvantaged' ... NOT ONE OBJECTIVE idea for showing
every SUCCESSFUL working American
(of many diverse ethnic backgrounds)recognition of their GOOD AND INDEPENDENT hard work to
'have'
No statement of why 'some' can have in this nation yet there are others who at present have not.
Sen. Obama focuses on 'those poor disadvantaged folk; who wind up in jail, wind up single mothers, have not jobs that provide a living wage' - his solution is to point
'OVER THERE' rather than right back at THOSE STRUGGLING.
and in so doing; he both blames yet expects those he blames to make his ideas work. He's going to insist on a higher minimum wage, yet forgets that when a business pays more to a worker - said business owner who also must live, is going to RAISE THE COST of it's product or service. Thus making the higher minimum MEAN NOTHING.
Obama's naivete that more dollars makes for 'wealth' is to laugh.
This is just one example of this Senator's in-experience in living
life.
Obama's naivete that more dollars makes for 'wealth' is to laugh.
ahhh yes; it's what every adolescent mind believes; when starting life in the working world.
"if only" ... "if only" I were making $2 more an hour I would be 'ok'...SO...life happens, and said person gets that $2 more an hour...along with everyone around him of course. In the living of life with that first starting out paycheck...if one spent OVER the income of those times, the 'raise'
means NOTHING...the raise came, but the expenses of living also came or lingered from what one did
while on less income. So the one
says..."if only I had $2 more an hour...I'd be ok" and so it goes when all one works for is dollar wealth.
Contrast such to "seek first the kingdom" That means: Imitate the Spirit of God which dwells in you.
Be generous to God's work; tithing
to God is never lost, it always comes back...doubled or better than even doubled. Be content
in what one has; and SAVE for oneself and one's family before
buying clothes or 'stuff' to show one is 'rich.'/LEARN; via some form of adult education or one class per semester at a community college; in conjunction with the work (and yes; sometimes the business does pay for such initiative)
When one does not spend MORE THAN what one earns...one is HAPPIER.
And when the raise comes...put it away in the bank as if it didn't happen. (if one can) In time (but not overnight) one suddenly finds that one has THINGS but more importantly, they grow in understanding of 'how to make it'
and they know they don't work alone.
It is sad how some thing dollars alone make for wealth. I suppose it has to do with the game show mentality. Give someone opportunity to win one million dollars; and in that poor person's mind they are now RICH.
Wrong, they have a million pieces of paper. In how they act with it; will speak of thier 'wealth' [of spirit] or lack thereof.
A million dollars in the hands of the 'poor thinking' will be spent strictly for things. They will buy a home worth at least $400,000 rather than simply having a small home to suit their family. If they have 3 children; a 3 bedroom home works. "Chances are real good" 2 of those 3 are the same gender (heh heh) and can be in the same bedroom. The other takes the smaller room; the parents in the Master bedroom. A simple home. Nothing extravagant to call attention to oneself. This is the mindset of true wealth. In a word Humbleness. They will live simply and ensure their children learn in a good school. They will send their children to a private school and live in a simple neighborhood. That's wealth of spirit.
Winning a million, some of poor thought process will stop working.
(wrong thought, 'truly wealthy' persons love their work ... but the poor of thought simply want fun and easy living.
If right thought is not present quick riches spoil, real wealth remembers they are who they are;
HUMAN but they know thier worth;
The truly wealthy OF SPIRIT are
not easily 'tripped up' by other
weak mortals. Yes, in a less than\
SPIRIT FILLED (God) world; humanity is all looking out for number one...THE WEALTHY of knowing their worth IN HIM are
'simple' but not naive to those
less than spirited tactics.
THE TRUE WEALTHY are rich IN HIS
GRACE and STRENGTH and are not easily tempted, thus they do not fall [for it] thus they inch by inch...retain and sustain a 'good life.' Boring by the standards of the worldly ...but JOY FILLED to those who understand.
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