Third Party Factor

I just had a thought thinking about the upcoming election, and that being the factor that the third paties will have on this election as opposed to previous elections. Everyone know about Ralph Nader, who is running again as an Idependent, and how he made an impact on the 2000 election. Not to mention how bad Republicans faired due to the large impact of Ross Perot in 1992, and 1996. Independents and third parties can make a big difference in the election, and for some reason, I get the feeling it may play a role again in 2008. Take, for example, a recent poll by CNN that includes both Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate. Barack Obama leads McCain by a 47% to 43% margin. Nader draws an astounding 6%, and even Barr draws a modest 2% in that poll. Without those candidates, it is a 49% to 46% win for Obama.

Bob Barr, a former Republican from Georgia, may take votes away from John McCain. Ralph Nader may take away from both. As seen, when those candidates are included, McCain is the one that really suffers the most. Nader and Barr may both fall off the map as time goes along. Nader had the same trend going into 2004, and as he failed to make the ballot in many states, the less affect he had on the overall election.

So logically, we could run into another 2000, where one party feels cheated due to the prospects of the third party candidates. But moving forward, is John McCain the one that would really take the bigger hit? Ralph Nader is far left, as is most of the Libertarian Party, so it seems like Democrats unhappy with Obama would be the ones trailing to a third party. Then again, maybe right-of-center Republicans will cling to Bob Barr, a former Republican.

Intreasting to think about as November draws closer and closer...