If you take a look at recent polling trends, especially the day by day trends, you will see that McCain has quietly moved to a tie in the latest Rasmussen Reports Poll. In the Gallup, McCain has moved to within 1 point. And Newsweek, who gave Obama a 12 point lead a month ago, has moved the race to just 3. We will have to see if this will also be reflected in the state to state polls (usually it does).
Liberals will sure be in denial about this, but I think Obama's message is starting to fall apart. He keeps changing his mind about things, not to mention he has had to retract several statments that he has made in order to appease certain people. And as hard as he trying to win over the Christian vote, it is not likely to work.
Here is also something that is sure to rattle some left wing cages. With all the media attention, which is 95% positive, in his favor...it is really saying something that he is still is in a tie with John McCain. McCain is forced to hold the party of a President that has left most people in disgust, and yet he is getting stronger and stronger...not weaker. If fact, I would make the case that by the start of september, it will McCain, not Obama with the advantage going through the heart of the election season.
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7 comments:
election junkie writes: 'as hard as he (Sen. Obama) trying to win over the Christian vote, it is not likely to work.
Me: No Christian (Follower of Christ) votes for one who says
"abortion is a right" nor would
any true Christian give a vote to one who supports gay marriage or gay civil unions. Jesus himself would not, so why would a follower of Christ?'
I really do not think it is wise to predict who will be ahead in September before 1: there has been VP selections and 2: the national conventions have yet to occur. Most of the nation is not closely following the election yet, so I would take most polling at this current time with a grain of salt.
No matter how much he has improved in the overall polls to date, John McCain will still lose the general election for the presidency, and that's more than a guarantee!
anonymous said: I really do not think it is wise to predict who will be ahead in September before 1: there has been VP selections and 2: the national conventions have yet to occur. Most of the nation is not closely following the election yet, so I would take most polling at this current time with a grain of salt.
then anonymous said:
No matter how much he has improved in the overall polls to date, John McCain will still lose the general election for the presidency, and that's more than a guarantee!
mmmm...first "I don't think it's wise to predice..." THEN John McCain will still lose ..
Looks like anonymous wants to win
at predicting any which way. Talk
about 'flip flop'...
Republican strategist Mike Murphy said on Meet the Press, national polls don't really tell you anything until the running mates are picked and the conventions held. The Newsweek poll has some obvious problems with sample makeup, which they re-calibrated since the June 15-point-gap poll. Republicans were trashing its accuracy then, now that it has moved back into the pack of where most polls were the whole time, you don't get to claim that it represents a "surge" to McCain. Meanwhile, the state polls (its the electoral college that counts) still look good for Obama--McCain's hopes of snatching Penn and Mich not so high anymore. And the process of voters getting to know Obama is still in progress.
anonymous,
I don't disagree with your statement at all, but the reason that I said that paticular line was because Democrats are already crowing him the winner of the entire election. And I think you could make the case that it isn't for sure that he will even in the lead going through the heart of the election season.
That said, I am convinced that Obama has had and will continue to have a strong lead. I see only two outcomes for the election. Obama wins BIG, McCain wins close. With all the problems with the Republican party, I think Obama will have to lose, rather than John McCain win, will has the potential to happen.
I thought John McCain was rising! I thought the blogger said Obama's lead and message as falling apart! Check the national and state polls lately? You conservatives are in such denial you have no idea what is about to befall you. Sad, sad, sad! Can't wait to laugh it up.
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