New Hampshire Latest of Romney's Worries

With two straight polls showing McCain up in New Hampshire by six, suddenly it has become a make or break in Iowa for Romney. I've heard very little of McCain for a while, but ever since he grabbed the support of Joe Lieberman, he has taken off in New Hampshire and now finds himself ahead nationally also. I will go ahead and conclude that if Romney doesn't find a way to win in Iowa he is not likely to win a state other than Utah. Even if Romney wins Iowa, McCain still has a good chance to win in New Hampshire, so Iowa is certainly the make or break for Romney 2008 presidential campaign.

Latest polls in Iowa:

• Zogby(12-31): M Huckabee: 28 M Romney: 26 J McCain: 12
• Strategic Vision(12-30): M Romney: 30 M Huckabee: 28 J McCain: 16
• CNN/Time(12-30): M Romney: 31 M Huckabee: 28 F Thompson: 13%
• Selzer & Co(12-30): M Huckabee: 32 M Romney: 26 J McCain: 13

Latest Polls in New Hampshire:

• Franklin Pierce(12-31): J McCain: 37 M Romney: 31 R. Giliani: 10
• Suffolk(12-31): J McCain: 31 M Romney: 25 R. Giuliani: 14
• U of New Hampshie(12-30): J McCain: 29 M Romney: 29 R. Giuliani: 12

Note: Expect Causcus Results Tonight

Ready to Start

We've been waiting and now the time is here. You will notice that on the right that the 'Candidate' page and 'Primaries' page has been combined. The Primary section I had origionally intended to show all the results of each primary, but it became very difficult and it will be much easier to show the results this way and get important information on each candidate at the same time.

Every time there is about to be a Causcus or Primary, I get to make my calls and here it is for Iowa.

Iowa(Democratic):
B. Obama-33% H. Clinton-29% J. Edwards-29% Other-8%
Iowa(Republican):
M. Huckabee-32% M. Romney-29% F. Thompson-12% J. McCain-9% R. Giuliani-8% Other-10%

Now, these predictions are based on personal evaulation, not a system that led me to this projection. I don't have a system for the primary, so alot of this revolves around a variety of polls and some personal opinion.

Late Merry Christmas!

I didn't have a chance before, but here's hoping that all of you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday season. God Bless!

Huckabee Soaring/Romney's Chances Fading, More Iowa

Everyone's been talking about how Huckabee has come from nowhere to compete for Iowa, but now he is pulling away by a wide margin according to a recent Newsweek poll. According to this poll Huckabee has pulled ahead by 22 points with 39% of the vote. Romney is downward at 17% and Thompson is at 10%. Giuliani, Paul, and McCain are other candidates still getting high single digits. This is the third staight poll to show Huckabee ahead, and any other poll showing Romney ahead is within the margin of error. At this point, Romney's chances are getting darker and darker as his only hope was in winning Iowa. On top of that, his large lead in New Hampshire is steadily falling also.

In the same poll that shows Huckabee ahead by 22%, also shows Obama storming ahead to a lead of six points. Obama is at 35%, Clinton is at 29%, with Edwards hanging around with 18% of the vote. I don't know if it is enough to win the entire primary, but this is the fourth poll out of five to give Obama the edge. The last two have him above the margin of error also.

Hard to believe, but a month ago Clinton and Romney seemed to have things wrapped up in Iowa.

Now, I'm Almost Convinced, Murtha Sees Progress

For month's the jury has been out on how well the 'surge' is actually working. After last month's reports on troop deaths and Iraq Security/Civilian deaths, I am starting to feel more and more confident that this thing is actually working. American troop deaths fell to 37 deaths in November, 1 lower than last month and the lowest since March of 2006. As far Iraqi deaths are concerned, it fell again to 560 deaths down more than a 100 of last month that was also a low over the last 2- plus years. I'm nearly convinced that the surge is working, but until violence is proven to be sustained and we are seriously stable enough to consider troop withdraws, I'm not entirely convinced.

On another note, the progress has been so significant that even John Murtha acknowledged that the surge is working. Murtha just returned from a Thanksgiving visit to Iraq and stated that he was most encouraged by the progress of a once out of control area of the Anbar province.

Who knows, times have been hard, but things might be starting to turn around.

Does the Public Feel Progress?

I took a look at Pollingreport.com today and found an suprising poll that shows the public "might" be seeing some progress in Iraq. Now this is coming from Pew Research, not a Republican based poll. In fact, it has Bush's approval numbers barely at 30% (4 points lower than the average). Here's what I saw.

Now I'll be hounest, if someone asked me how that poll would turn out before it was taken, I would have been more likely to have said it would drop instead of increase. I have thought for a while that the surge has helped Iraq. Not saved, mind you, but it should be fair to say that it has been very beneficial to the progress in Iraq. Maybe the public is finally starting to believe that a stable Iraq is possible. This is a man that really hopes so.

Early Thoughts on Senate & House, Corker Comments

I haven't really commented much on the Senate and House races thus far, but really my thoughts are about the same as everyone else. At this stage of the races, Democrats are clearly the favorite. Aside from Louisiana, Republicans don't seem to have a lot going for them. Any other races that could be a possible pick-up, so far looks like a long shot. Demcrats, on the other hand, are in gear for another 4 or 5 pick-ups assuming things continue to go in their favor. In the House, I first thought that the Republicans should eaisily take back 5 to 12 seats, but I'm not convinced that ALL of the Democratic wave is over, and may be in line to pick up yet another 5 or 6 seats.

A couple of you who were wondering about the Bob Corker statements, I put the main part of the conference below. Some have made a big deal about this, but personally I don't have a problem with it. I think if Republicans and Democrats alike have a lot of unrest with this war (Liberals just love to rub the whole disaster in Republican faces for political points), and Corker is the same way. It is no secret that Bush hasn't been very plain since day one of this war and Corker as a new senator hasn't really found the awnsers that he and the American people are looking for, Corker stated:

"Underwhelmed. I was in the White House a number of times to talk about the
issue, and I may rankle some in the room saying this, but I was very
underwhelmed with what discussions took place at the White House,” Corker
said. A reporter would later ask, "I was concerned about your statement that you
were underwhelmed with what was going on in the White House. Did you mean with him or with his staff?”

“Let me say this. George Bush is a very compassionate person. He’s a very
good person. And a lot of people don’t see that in him, and there’s many
people in this room who might disagree with that…. I just felt a little bit
underwhelmed by our discussions, the complexity of them, the depth of them.”

Huckabee on the Move?, Endorsements

If any of you have seen the latest Rasmussen poll for the Republican nomination, you will see that Huckabee is third among the candidates for president. Giuliani earns 24% of the vote, Fred Thompson attracts 17% of the vote, and Huckabee grabs 13%, with McCain and Romney tied at 12%. If Huckabee was not already considered a real contender before, then he should certainly be added onto that top list.

If you're wondering about the democrats, it is still about the same. Clinton grabs 39%, actually the lowest amount of support since Semptember, Obama has got 21%, while John Edwards remains back at 16%

In another note, Pat Robertson has shockingly thrown his support to Giuliani for President. Many think this could give Giuliani a bit of a boost, thinking that conservatives may make the move to Giuliani. This is also a downer for Mitt Romney who has been fighting to get social conservatives for some time. Speaking of endorsements, Sam Brownback, who has already withdrawn from the race for president, is expected to endorse John McCain pretty soon. I don't see much coming from this, considering Brownback didn't have a long list of followers or money in his bid for office.

Where I'm Leaning

For quite a while I had decided that I might stray away from my normal right of center vote and go pretty much to the middle, meaning I was leaning toward Rudy Giuliani. But I have really been suprised by how much I've liked Mike Huckabee lately, both his beliefs both personal and presidential level. I did not pay much attention to Huckabee, even after his strong showing in the Iowa straw poll, but as the debates have went along and he has got more in the open, I really have started to enjoy the prospects of him being a candidate.

Meanwhile, I have started trailing away from the prospects of Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. I was never high on Romney, but Thompson has been a drag for me lately. Giuliani hasn't really changed for me. I kind of knew what I was expecting from Giuliani from the beginning so he is still my second choice for the time being.

On the Democratic side, it has closed up in Iowa. Obama may have gained, but I still think Clinton is the easy favorite. Obama IS making progress though and still has the potential for an upset. John Edwards is the only democrat I actually like, even though I don't really agree with him a lot. Either way, his campaign has been slipping and it doesn't seem as if he will survive very long.

This may come as a shock, but expect things to change before it's all over.

A New Poll

I know it's been a while again, but things have gotten really difficult schedule wise, and before you know it another month has passed by. So again I'll try to keep up, add more features, and update, but for now take a look at the newest poll. God Bless Guys.

Getting Back Into It...

I've been out for a while, but I guess I haven't missed that much. I am trying to get back into the thick of things however, and you should see some more things being put in place. On the candidate page, I'm looking to continue to include new information, and new things will continue to come as time goes along.

Quick Prayer

I would like to take a second to say a quick prayer for those related to the tradegy that occured in Minneapolis. As sad and unthinkable as it is to believe that this happened, there are those that need your prayers in any way you can bring them in this sad moment. It is intresting that one of my favorite bloggers in Cold Heart lives in that area and I'm sure he is being affected in his own personal way. My deepest prayer is that we rebound like we all have before and work hard to prevent such a tradegy from ever occuring again.