Graphs Updated, New Poll

Just so you guys know, all the graphs have been updated on every page and can be seen through the 'Primaries and Candidates' page on the right.

Also I have a new poll up on what you feel will be the legacy of President George W. Bush, which is also on the right side of the site.

God Bless

McCain Gets Another Big Win, Edorsements, Hillary/Obama

John McCain got a huge win in Florida, and now seems to be the odds on favorite of taking the GOP nomination. Wait, wasn't this the guy that not long ago I said would be better off dropping out than taking the embarrassment? Well, even if it isn't Republican's best choice, it is the smart choice. McCain has led all democrats in 6 straight polls. No other Republican nominee has even led a democrats.

McCain certainly benefited from the Crist endorsement, and now that he has won Florida, he went on to pick up a couple more yesterday. Rudy drops out of the race and goes to McCain. This will be helpful in the liberal states that Giuliani leaves behind. He also got the endorsement of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, another moderate to help out that area of his campaign.

Another big event yesterday was John Edwards droping out of the race. That virually leaves the race completely on Clinton and Obama. The real question is who does Edwards endorse(if he does at all), or at the very least where does his votes go. For the Democrats, this race could go all the way to the convention.

Last Second Flordia Pick

I have gone back and forth all day on who will take the Florida primary for Republicans. I have a bad feeling that Giuliani will take enough votes from McCain to give Romney the win, but somehow, based on the last polls in Florida that McCain will pull out a 1-3 point victory.

McCain: 24% Romney: 22% Giuliani: 19% Huckabee: 17% Other: 18%

On the democratic side, expect an easy win for Clinton, 15-20 point win.

Clinton: 50% Obama: 30% Edwards: 15% Other: 5%

Huge Turnout for Obama

Yesterday was quite a day for Obama. I didn't even bother putting up projections yesterday as Obama seem to be a clear favorite, but not only did he win, he blew Clinton out of the water.

Anyone that thought Clinton had this one wrapped up could be in for an crude awakening. With this election season, it seems as though everything you think is going to happen goes the complete other direction.

Stay tuned for Florida projections coming up soon.

Martin Luther King Day, Computer Problems, Late Predictions

First off, Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day to all of you, and let us never forget what he did for our country and the breakthroughs that took place due to his works.

As for all the missed projections and absence of updates, the problems have continued on my computer and has prevented me from updating the same way I usually would. Good news is, the problems seem to be gone and all of my charts should be updated within the day.

If you are curious on what my predictions would have been here are who the winner and runner-ups I expected.

Michigan-
1.John McCain 2. Mitt Romney
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama

Nevada-
1. Mitt Romney 2. Ron Paul
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama

South Carolina-
1. Mike Huckabee 2. John McCain
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama

As you can see I wouldn't have done so well on the Republican side, although I was dead on on the Democratic side. I should be good to go from here on out, so keep checking in.

UPDATE: The charts HAVE been updated on the main page, but the additional ones have yet to be done. Those should be done in the next couple of days.

Updates, New Hampshire Predictions

Goodness, I have had all sorts of trouble posting lately and I'm finally able to get it rolling. The graphs HAVE been updated and they can be seen on the Presidential Primaries page.

And now for my New Hampshire predictions:

Democratic: Obama: 40% Clinton: 30% John Edwards: 15% Other: 15%
Republican: McCain: 38% Romney: 30% Huckabee: 11% Paul: 11% Giuliani: 8% Hunter: 2%
I did shockingly well for the Iowa prediction, and so I'm hoping for good things tonight.

More Extended Predictions:

Again, here are my final picks. I have made some serious last second changes, so it is a bit different. I am very interested in how well I do.

Republican:
Mike Huckabee: 34% Mitt Romney: 25% John McCain: 13% F Thompson: 12% Ron Paul: 7% Rudy Giuliani: 5% Other: 4%
Democrat:
Barack Obama: 32% John Edwards: 31% Hillary Clinton: 30% Other: 7%
UPDATE: Some of you that are confused on the process of the Iowa Caucuses for Republicans and Democrats should take a look at Wake Up America. I found his article helpful. And those who are looking for more predictions, Election Projection has a list of all those who have made picks.

New Hampshire Latest of Romney's Worries

With two straight polls showing McCain up in New Hampshire by six, suddenly it has become a make or break in Iowa for Romney. I've heard very little of McCain for a while, but ever since he grabbed the support of Joe Lieberman, he has taken off in New Hampshire and now finds himself ahead nationally also. I will go ahead and conclude that if Romney doesn't find a way to win in Iowa he is not likely to win a state other than Utah. Even if Romney wins Iowa, McCain still has a good chance to win in New Hampshire, so Iowa is certainly the make or break for Romney 2008 presidential campaign.


Latest polls in Iowa:
  • Zogby(12-31): M Huckabee: 28 M Romney: 26 J McCain: 12
  • Strategic Vision(12-30): M Romney: 30 M Huckabee: 28 J McCain: 16
  • CNN/Time(12-30): M Romney: 31 M Huckabee: 28 F Thompson: 13%
  • Selzer & Co(12-30): M Huckabee: 32 M Romney: 26 J McCain: 13

Latest Polls in New Hampshire:

  • Franklin Pierce(12-31): J McCain: 37 M Romney: 31 R. Giliani: 10
  • Suffolk(12-31): J McCain: 31 M Romney: 25 R. Giuliani: 14
  • U of New Hampshie(12-30): J McCain: 29 M Romney: 29 R. Giuliani: 12

Note: Expect Causcus Results Tonight

Ready to Start

We've been waiting and now the time is here. You will notice that on the right that the 'Candidate' page and 'Primaries' page has been combined. The Primary section I had origionally intended to show all the results of each primary, but it became very difficult and it will be much easier to show the results this way and get important information on each candidate at the same time.

Every time there is about to be a Causcus or Primary, I get to make my calls and here it is for Iowa.

Iowa(Democratic):
B. Obama-33% H. Clinton-29% J. Edwards-29% Other-8%
Iowa(Republican):
M. Huckabee-32% M. Romney-29% F. Thompson-12% J. McCain-9% R. Giuliani-8% Other-10%

Now, these predictions are based on personal evaulation, not a system that led me to this projection. I don't have a system for the primary, so alot of this revolves around a variety of polls and some personal opinion.