Battlegrounds, Obama and McCain

Going into the 2008 election, we should see a majority of the battleground states from last election pop up again. What could be intresting, certainly if Obama gets the democratic nomination, is that we could see a string of new battlegrounds appear this cycle. If Obama wins the nomination, I would expect to see much closer races in the south. Maybe not enough to win any, but to force the GOP to have to push money in places the haven't had to in a while. At the same time, McCain gets a lot of benefits from his area also.

Lets start with Obama winning the nomination. Southern states have been pretty favorable to Obama thus far in polling. At this point, Louisiana has been polling tight, along with Arkansas and West Virgina. Missouri and Virgina could also be competitive. On a rather suprising note, Georgia has been very close also. In every case, I still believe that the GOP will win all of these states, even if many are much closer than in previous elections. I have a hard time believing that Georgia will be competitive very long, but it may be 5 or so points better than in the past election.

On McCain, expect him do well in the midwest, especially in his state's neighbor of New Mexico. New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have been doing well for McCain thus far, which is really good news because they are all battleground states. Florida is a place I expect McCain do better also, but he has got to find a way to satisfy the south or his campaign his in deep trouble.

The biggest toss-ups to me are Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsion, Minnisota, Oregan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

I expect all of these to be pretty close, but really look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Those have the potential to really sway the election.