In Deleware, Democrats will continue to dominate, save the At-Large district held by Republican Mike Castle. Other than that, the Democrats will pick up the three electoral votes, along with sweeping the Govenor and Senate races.
For the District of Columbia, it's three electoral votes will most certainly go to the Democrat, likely carrying 85-90% of the vote.
Moving on to Florida, which is one of the most hotly contested states out there, considering the importance of it's 27 electoral votes. It has no Senate or Governor race, but it should have a couple of fun House races in Districts 16 and 22.
And finally Georgia, which shouldn't have any trouble going to the GOP in the presidential race. Senator Saxby Chambliss looks to be in nice shapes, and the GOP has a couple of oppurtunites to pick up some House seats in Districts 8 and 12.
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State to State Races: California, Colorado, Connecticut
I have three here right now and by the end of the day should few more states completed, as I am trying to make up a bit of time lost while I have a chance.
Lets start with California. This won't be a state that gives you many suprises. The Democrats will win this state's 55 electoral votes, and with no senate or governor race, it will be the same old California. Look for a couple of competitive house races in District 4 and in District 11, however.
Next take a look at Colorado. It wasn't long that even Bob Doyle could take this state for the red without trouble, but Colorado is turning blue quickly, and this should be a highly competitive race in 2008. You also want to take a look at the Open Seat race for the Senate where the GOP and DEM parties have put together strong candidates.
And then there is Connecticut. This state will probably be a bit dull this year as it will go blue in the presidential race. There also is no Senate or Governor race, and only a couple of house seats that 'might' be competitive in the future.
Stay tuned for: Deleware, Flordia, Georgia, DC
Lets start with California. This won't be a state that gives you many suprises. The Democrats will win this state's 55 electoral votes, and with no senate or governor race, it will be the same old California. Look for a couple of competitive house races in District 4 and in District 11, however.
Next take a look at Colorado. It wasn't long that even Bob Doyle could take this state for the red without trouble, but Colorado is turning blue quickly, and this should be a highly competitive race in 2008. You also want to take a look at the Open Seat race for the Senate where the GOP and DEM parties have put together strong candidates.
And then there is Connecticut. This state will probably be a bit dull this year as it will go blue in the presidential race. There also is no Senate or Governor race, and only a couple of house seats that 'might' be competitive in the future.
Stay tuned for: Deleware, Flordia, Georgia, DC
McCain's VP Choices: Obvious, Smart, and Bad
I think John McCain has a variety of avenues to travel down in selecting his Vice-President. I have a few that he could travel down, but who belongs in which one is up for debate.
Obvious Choice: Mick Huckabee
Some could call this 'smart choice', but Mike Huckabee does bring a lot to the table. Barack Obama has polled very well in southern states thus far, including Arkansas, which is a place that could surprise many this year. With him as the VP, the prospects of Arkansas become much more reliable, and may satisfy a very a conservative South that aren't very happy with McCain. A down side is that it does little to excite independent voters that could be key in some states. Others that fit this category include Mitt Romney, and other former GOP hopefuls.
Smart Choice: Joe Lieberman
Yes, yes I could catch some heat for this one, but what could be better for McCain than an Independent Democrat that is very popular with Independents, fairly popular with Democrats, and ok with many Republicans Republicans. Early polls show McCain very competitive in states like Michigan, Oregan, Wisconsion, New Jersey, and New Hampshire among others, and Lieberman could attract just enough to put McCain over the edge. Big draw back is how likely it is that he lose support among conservative voters, who may not show up at all and make some states less competitive.
Bad Choice: Rudy Giuliani
Rudy may be America's mayor, but he would be a very poor choice for vice president. The conservitives in the party would be very angry. So angry that they might not vote in the election, which would be scary in a close election.
Obvious Choice: Mick Huckabee
Some could call this 'smart choice', but Mike Huckabee does bring a lot to the table. Barack Obama has polled very well in southern states thus far, including Arkansas, which is a place that could surprise many this year. With him as the VP, the prospects of Arkansas become much more reliable, and may satisfy a very a conservative South that aren't very happy with McCain. A down side is that it does little to excite independent voters that could be key in some states. Others that fit this category include Mitt Romney, and other former GOP hopefuls.
Smart Choice: Joe Lieberman
Yes, yes I could catch some heat for this one, but what could be better for McCain than an Independent Democrat that is very popular with Independents, fairly popular with Democrats, and ok with many Republicans Republicans. Early polls show McCain very competitive in states like Michigan, Oregan, Wisconsion, New Jersey, and New Hampshire among others, and Lieberman could attract just enough to put McCain over the edge. Big draw back is how likely it is that he lose support among conservative voters, who may not show up at all and make some states less competitive.
Bad Choice: Rudy Giuliani
Rudy may be America's mayor, but he would be a very poor choice for vice president. The conservitives in the party would be very angry. So angry that they might not vote in the election, which would be scary in a close election.
State to State Races: Arizona, Arkansas
The second installment into my State to State Race outlook moves to two states that may be competitive, and at the same time may not be so competitive.
First, lets take a look at Arizona. With McCain as the nominee, it makes be believe that this typical battleground state should lean more toward the GOP side in the presidential race. Arizona will not have a Senate or Governor race this year, but there are a few House races to look in to. District 1 will be an open seat this year, and in an area that is leaning toward the democrats at the moment, it is a place that could be hotly contested. Another race to look at is District 5 where J.D. Hayworth will battle to regain the seat he lost to Harold Mitchell. District 8 may also be one to look at in the future.
Next let's look at Arkansas. Assuming that Obama gets the nomination over Clinton, McCain should be the clear favorite in a state that has been trending Republican in previous elections. Early polls have shown it very close though, so there is no choice but to label it a Weak Hold. Not much else is expected to happen in Arkansas, as popular Senator Mark Pryor looks to cruise to an easy victory and retain his seat for Democrats in the senate. Also, there is no competitive house races at this point and no Governor race will occur in this cycle.
Stay tuned for: California, Colorado
First, lets take a look at Arizona. With McCain as the nominee, it makes be believe that this typical battleground state should lean more toward the GOP side in the presidential race. Arizona will not have a Senate or Governor race this year, but there are a few House races to look in to. District 1 will be an open seat this year, and in an area that is leaning toward the democrats at the moment, it is a place that could be hotly contested. Another race to look at is District 5 where J.D. Hayworth will battle to regain the seat he lost to Harold Mitchell. District 8 may also be one to look at in the future.
Next let's look at Arkansas. Assuming that Obama gets the nomination over Clinton, McCain should be the clear favorite in a state that has been trending Republican in previous elections. Early polls have shown it very close though, so there is no choice but to label it a Weak Hold. Not much else is expected to happen in Arkansas, as popular Senator Mark Pryor looks to cruise to an easy victory and retain his seat for Democrats in the senate. Also, there is no competitive house races at this point and no Governor race will occur in this cycle.
Stay tuned for: California, Colorado
State to State Races: Alabama, Alaska
The first offical look to the 2008 races starts with Alabama and Alaska. I am looking to do two at a time, but if I get short on time, I may have to resort to doing just one. Expect at least two a week until I am finished, although I will do everything possible to do more than that. Click on the highlighted state to view the page. Or simply naviagate throgh the senate page.
In Alabama, John McCain shouldn't have much trouble in defeating the Democratic nominee, especially if it is Clinton that gets the nod. If Obama wins, it will likely be closer, but nothing that McCain should sweat over, at least not at this point. Alabama should also be safe in the senate race, as Jeff Sessions doesn't seem to have much to worry about.
In Alaska, the GOP support will remain solid as it has through previous elections. However, Senator Ted Stevens and Congressmen Don Young are both on the road to strong opposition, as both are having scandal problems at the moment. Both may be retiring, and both may be defeated in the primary, but as long as they are in the race, GOP victories in November are much less than certain.
Stay tuned for: Arizona, Arkansas
In Alabama, John McCain shouldn't have much trouble in defeating the Democratic nominee, especially if it is Clinton that gets the nod. If Obama wins, it will likely be closer, but nothing that McCain should sweat over, at least not at this point. Alabama should also be safe in the senate race, as Jeff Sessions doesn't seem to have much to worry about.
In Alaska, the GOP support will remain solid as it has through previous elections. However, Senator Ted Stevens and Congressmen Don Young are both on the road to strong opposition, as both are having scandal problems at the moment. Both may be retiring, and both may be defeated in the primary, but as long as they are in the race, GOP victories in November are much less than certain.
Stay tuned for: Arizona, Arkansas
2008: State to State Races
Today I started my projections for each state. I decided to start with my home state of Georgia just to get things going and make sure I had everything in place. After today, however, I will by going in order starting with Alabama.
To look at the Georgia page, click here. I would love to know your thoughts on the page and any suggestions would be more than welcome.
To look at the Georgia page, click here. I would love to know your thoughts on the page and any suggestions would be more than welcome.
Battlegrounds, Obama and McCain
Going into the 2008 election, we should see a majority of the battleground states from last election pop up again. What could be intresting, certainly if Obama gets the democratic nomination, is that we could see a string of new battlegrounds appear this cycle. If Obama wins the nomination, I would expect to see much closer races in the south. Maybe not enough to win any, but to force the GOP to have to push money in places the haven't had to in a while. At the same time, McCain gets a lot of benefits from his area also.
Lets start with Obama winning the nomination. Southern states have been pretty favorable to Obama thus far in polling. At this point, Louisiana has been polling tight, along with Arkansas and West Virgina. Missouri and Virgina could also be competitive. On a rather suprising note, Georgia has been very close also. In every case, I still believe that the GOP will win all of these states, even if many are much closer than in previous elections. I have a hard time believing that Georgia will be competitive very long, but it may be 5 or so points better than in the past election.
On McCain, expect him do well in the midwest, especially in his state's neighbor of New Mexico. New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have been doing well for McCain thus far, which is really good news because they are all battleground states. Florida is a place I expect McCain do better also, but he has got to find a way to satisfy the south or his campaign his in deep trouble.
The biggest toss-ups to me are Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsion, Minnisota, Oregan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
I expect all of these to be pretty close, but really look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Those have the potential to really sway the election.
Lets start with Obama winning the nomination. Southern states have been pretty favorable to Obama thus far in polling. At this point, Louisiana has been polling tight, along with Arkansas and West Virgina. Missouri and Virgina could also be competitive. On a rather suprising note, Georgia has been very close also. In every case, I still believe that the GOP will win all of these states, even if many are much closer than in previous elections. I have a hard time believing that Georgia will be competitive very long, but it may be 5 or so points better than in the past election.
On McCain, expect him do well in the midwest, especially in his state's neighbor of New Mexico. New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have been doing well for McCain thus far, which is really good news because they are all battleground states. Florida is a place I expect McCain do better also, but he has got to find a way to satisfy the south or his campaign his in deep trouble.
The biggest toss-ups to me are Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsion, Minnisota, Oregan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
I expect all of these to be pretty close, but really look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Those have the potential to really sway the election.
What Will Happen?
Tonight I am leaning towards Hillary having a good day, at least good enough to stay in the race. I wouldn't even be suprised if Hillary turns the tide tonight and keeps us all guessing.
John McCain could wrap up the delegate count tonight and end the needlessly prolonged campaign of Mike Huckabee. Despite that, you have to admit that his Saturday Night Live Skit was pretty funny.
John McCain could wrap up the delegate count tonight and end the needlessly prolonged campaign of Mike Huckabee. Despite that, you have to admit that his Saturday Night Live Skit was pretty funny.
Expect Updated Graphs, Poll Numbers, Quick Note
All the graphs should be updated within the next couple of days. It has been really slow since I haven't had much need for new projections. At this point, I'm liking Obama's chances more and more. Clinton's campaign has just lost it's swagger, while Obama, who has now taken the delegate lead, continues to press his message of change and hope. It's starting to look more and more like an Obama/McCain matchup to me at the very least.
The poll on the right sidebar is still going and I can't help but try to push you guys to vote in it. The poll is stating what you believe will be the legacy of George W. Bush. Right now, the top result is a complete 'Failure', while the number two result is 'Above Average'. Make sure to vote if you haven't already.
I thought I might as well tell you that I am starting to come closer to gearing up for the 2008 Election setup, and that is when the fun really begins.
The poll on the right sidebar is still going and I can't help but try to push you guys to vote in it. The poll is stating what you believe will be the legacy of George W. Bush. Right now, the top result is a complete 'Failure', while the number two result is 'Above Average'. Make sure to vote if you haven't already.
I thought I might as well tell you that I am starting to come closer to gearing up for the 2008 Election setup, and that is when the fun really begins.
Romney Calls it Quits
As of today, John McCain is almost a lock to be the Republican candidate for president. With that fact, McCain now moves to a national campaign that will pit him againist either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, which could go to the convention.
Not long ago, McCain was out. So out that he was taken out of the top candidates to win the election, including yours truely. McCain's sudden rise seems to date back to the Joe Lieberman endorsement. Although he was out of Iowa, he was able to fight off Romney and take the New Hampshire crown. Certianly his defining moment came in South Carolina when McCain and Huckabee virtually fought for the frount runner spot and McCain came through again. By the time Flordia ended, and Romney gave his last gasp(pouring millions of dollars in the process), McCain shined and there was no longer any denying him.
For Romney, the miracle he needed for Super Tuesday ended with less than impressive, even being bested by a fading Mike Huckabee in many cases, it was over.
Lucky for Republicans, he decided to drop now rather than drag things along any further. Now the only question is, Clinton or Obama?
Not long ago, McCain was out. So out that he was taken out of the top candidates to win the election, including yours truely. McCain's sudden rise seems to date back to the Joe Lieberman endorsement. Although he was out of Iowa, he was able to fight off Romney and take the New Hampshire crown. Certianly his defining moment came in South Carolina when McCain and Huckabee virtually fought for the frount runner spot and McCain came through again. By the time Flordia ended, and Romney gave his last gasp(pouring millions of dollars in the process), McCain shined and there was no longer any denying him.
For Romney, the miracle he needed for Super Tuesday ended with less than impressive, even being bested by a fading Mike Huckabee in many cases, it was over.
Lucky for Republicans, he decided to drop now rather than drag things along any further. Now the only question is, Clinton or Obama?
Super Tuesday Picks:
I should note that Obama has already won Georgia, with my pick for the republican is Huckabee.
Here is all the state picks:
Alabama: Huckabee, Obama
Alaska: McCain?, Clinton?
Arizona: McCain, Clinton
Arkansas: Huckabee, Clinton
California: Romney, Obama
Colorodo: Romney, Clinton
Connecticut: McCain, Obama
Delaware: McCain, Clinton
Georgia: Huckabee, Obama
Idaho: Romney, Obama
Illinois: McCain, Obama
Kansas: -
Mass: McCain, Clinton
Minnesota: McCain, Clinton
Missouri: McCain, Obama
Montana: Romney, Clinton
New Jersey: McCain, Clinton
New Mexico: McCain, Obama
New York: McCain, Clinton
North Dakota: McCain?, Clinton?
Oklahoma: McCain, Clinton
Tennessee: Huckabee, Clinton
Utah: Romney, Clinton
West Virginia: Huckabee, Clinton
Let's see what happen!
Update: Huckabee has been called for West Virgina during the time of the writing of this article also.
Here is all the state picks:
Alabama: Huckabee, Obama
Alaska: McCain?, Clinton?
Arizona: McCain, Clinton
Arkansas: Huckabee, Clinton
California: Romney, Obama
Colorodo: Romney, Clinton
Connecticut: McCain, Obama
Delaware: McCain, Clinton
Georgia: Huckabee, Obama
Idaho: Romney, Obama
Illinois: McCain, Obama
Kansas: -
Mass: McCain, Clinton
Minnesota: McCain, Clinton
Missouri: McCain, Obama
Montana: Romney, Clinton
New Jersey: McCain, Clinton
New Mexico: McCain, Obama
New York: McCain, Clinton
North Dakota: McCain?, Clinton?
Oklahoma: McCain, Clinton
Tennessee: Huckabee, Clinton
Utah: Romney, Clinton
West Virginia: Huckabee, Clinton
Let's see what happen!
Update: Huckabee has been called for West Virgina during the time of the writing of this article also.
The Day Before Super Tuesday!
Just a quick note. Expect my predictions on Super Tuesday just before it begins tomorrow. Based on the latest polls, it should be a good day for McCain, with the Democrats going in any possible direction.
Also instead of percentages, I will simply do state by state winners. I'm looking forward to a great day!
Also instead of percentages, I will simply do state by state winners. I'm looking forward to a great day!
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