What a difference from the election night results just last month. Saxby Chambliss retained his seat for senate in what turned out to be a landslide. At last check it appears as though Chambliss will win by a margin or 7 or 8 points, a far cry from the massive upswing of Democratic voters a month ago.
All the reasons I expected Chambliss to win yesterday rang pretty true, as black turnout was not very high, Republicans in a red state seemed pretty worried, and Chambliss pretty much had already won.
So if Coleman holds on in Minnesota, the GOP will likely feel pretty relieved that things did not turn out much worse.
Linkbar
Chambliss and Martin Scramble for Georgia Tonight, Coleman and Franken Still in Battle
It will be a big night for both parties as the run-off for senate in my home state of Georgia. Polls have shown a consistent 3-5 point advantage for Chambliss, which is welcomed by Republicans as the Minnesota race continues to be recounted. My own projection is pointing to a 54-46% win for the Republican, but one has to wonder who will show up the second time.
I think there is a good chance that Chambliss wins by a comfortable margin. Here are my list of reasons.
1- The Black Vote
With the race only centered on Chambliss and Martin, I do not see the high black turnout this time around. The African-American vote was ridiculously higher than normal due to Obama on the ticket, but I don't expect those kind of numbers again.
2- Previous Vote
Saxby Chambliss won on election night. He was 0.2% from claiming an actual majority. This was with the high democratic numbers and again, the African-American vote. I would have to assume that his three point margin should actually increase.
3- Fear of Filibuster-Proof Majority for Democrats
This is still Georgia. Saxby is not the most popular person in my state, but he is a Republican in a red state. Many GOPers are scared that the Democrats will take that majority, as Minnesota is still unsettled. Even many independents do not want one party with complete domination, and that certainly plays into the hands of Chambliss.
As for Minnesota, I have been looking very often on Coldheartedtruth for the latest information on the senate seat in his home state. Right now, the Coleman camp still maintains a lead of 135 votes with 92% of the state recounted. Many are starting to believe that Coleman will hold on despite the relentless efforts by Democrats to take the seat. For Republicans in Minnesota, you have to be thankful that there is no run-off, because Franken probably wins, especially with the backing of many big name Democrats in a blue state.
I think there is a good chance that Chambliss wins by a comfortable margin. Here are my list of reasons.
1- The Black Vote
With the race only centered on Chambliss and Martin, I do not see the high black turnout this time around. The African-American vote was ridiculously higher than normal due to Obama on the ticket, but I don't expect those kind of numbers again.
2- Previous Vote
Saxby Chambliss won on election night. He was 0.2% from claiming an actual majority. This was with the high democratic numbers and again, the African-American vote. I would have to assume that his three point margin should actually increase.
3- Fear of Filibuster-Proof Majority for Democrats
This is still Georgia. Saxby is not the most popular person in my state, but he is a Republican in a red state. Many GOPers are scared that the Democrats will take that majority, as Minnesota is still unsettled. Even many independents do not want one party with complete domination, and that certainly plays into the hands of Chambliss.
As for Minnesota, I have been looking very often on Coldheartedtruth for the latest information on the senate seat in his home state. Right now, the Coleman camp still maintains a lead of 135 votes with 92% of the state recounted. Many are starting to believe that Coleman will hold on despite the relentless efforts by Democrats to take the seat. For Republicans in Minnesota, you have to be thankful that there is no run-off, because Franken probably wins, especially with the backing of many big name Democrats in a blue state.
What happens if Things Don't Improve?
Here is a difficult question to ask should this be the case. What if in four years, we are at about the same point as we are right now. A near filibuster proof senate, huge majority in the house, and now a president, seemingly would hit democrats hard wouldn't it?
I'm not so sure. Should the economy continue it's terrible run, they will continue to tout Bush as the reason for the misery. Many question weather that can work in four years. If the GOP nominates someone with little ties to the Bush administration, can they really mention George Bush every other word, as they did the previous election? Maybe not, but then again, it will resort to the "Republicans did this to you, we are just having a hard time cleaning up their mess."
Maybe that will work, maybe it won't. I think if things show much improvement, then Democrats are in great shape in 2008, but a weak economy may actually help Republicans. Hm...sounds impossible, but interesting thing to look at.
I see it being another election cycle or two before the GOP starts to rebound. Then again, you never know.
I'm not so sure. Should the economy continue it's terrible run, they will continue to tout Bush as the reason for the misery. Many question weather that can work in four years. If the GOP nominates someone with little ties to the Bush administration, can they really mention George Bush every other word, as they did the previous election? Maybe not, but then again, it will resort to the "Republicans did this to you, we are just having a hard time cleaning up their mess."
Maybe that will work, maybe it won't. I think if things show much improvement, then Democrats are in great shape in 2008, but a weak economy may actually help Republicans. Hm...sounds impossible, but interesting thing to look at.
I see it being another election cycle or two before the GOP starts to rebound. Then again, you never know.
Congrats to 44th President Barack Obama, Future of Republican Party
What a big night for president-elect Barack Obama as he easily carries the election and will soon replace George W. Bush as our next president. I am trying my best to believe in Barack Obama, and if he does as much as he talks about, I'll be more than willing to support him in the coming years. I'm always excited with the coming of a new president. Who knows what the future holds, but the majority of Americans (and the world for that matter) got exactly what they wanted. God speed, President Obama.
And even though it must be a gloomy day for John McCain and his supporters, they should be proud of what he has accomplished. Despite everything that went wrong in his campaign, he certainly gave it everything he had against seemingly impossible odds, but he never gave up. He is an inspiration concerning the never give up attitude. Good luck in the future for you John McCain.
As for the future of the Grand Old Party, my first advice for Republicans is to NOT challenge Obama with Romney or Palin. What the GOP needs is some fresh faces and to keep their main focus on regaining senate and house seats. Certainly we don't know what is going to happen, but I expect at this point that Obama will be poised to a second term, start finding new leaders that can match Obama's youth, ability, and intelligence. Things look the same as it did in 1994 before you surged back, so doubt you will be gone forever.
God Bless.
And even though it must be a gloomy day for John McCain and his supporters, they should be proud of what he has accomplished. Despite everything that went wrong in his campaign, he certainly gave it everything he had against seemingly impossible odds, but he never gave up. He is an inspiration concerning the never give up attitude. Good luck in the future for you John McCain.
As for the future of the Grand Old Party, my first advice for Republicans is to NOT challenge Obama with Romney or Palin. What the GOP needs is some fresh faces and to keep their main focus on regaining senate and house seats. Certainly we don't know what is going to happen, but I expect at this point that Obama will be poised to a second term, start finding new leaders that can match Obama's youth, ability, and intelligence. Things look the same as it did in 1994 before you surged back, so doubt you will be gone forever.
God Bless.
Final Tally
Nothing changed from from last friday so the final tally is looking great for Democrats. Despite all of the numbers, I do expect things to be much closer than some of the polls have indicated, but we will see what happens!
A btw...PLEASE VOTE!!!
A btw...PLEASE VOTE!!!
New Projection: Obama on Cruise Control
Even as many national polls show the race getting closer, Obama still has a very clear advantage in the Electoral College, where it could be even worse. If not for previous elections weighed into my formula, Obama would also have Missouri and North Carolina. Even Indiana is on the verge of moving towards the Democrat.
If national polls continue to get closer in the next couple of days, election night may prove not to be a huge blowout. If the present numbers continue though, the election will be over once Virgina is called for Obama. McCain can't win without this state, along with Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, among others. A McCain victory would be nothing short of a miracle.
If national polls continue to get closer in the next couple of days, election night may prove not to be a huge blowout. If the present numbers continue though, the election will be over once Virgina is called for Obama. McCain can't win without this state, along with Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, among others. A McCain victory would be nothing short of a miracle.
Could I Vote for Obama?
Unless you know me personally, you probably wouldn't know that I'm not affiliated with a party. Although in more instances than not, I side with with Republicans, it doesn't mean I don't put a lot of stock in what each candidate has to say and wait to make my decision.
So for all of you curious as to who I have favored throughout the campaign, you might be surprised that I have changed my mind on a few occasions. Going through primary season, my favorite two candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee, and yes; Democrat John Edwards. Well obviously, Edwards turned out to be a bust for more than a few reasons, but Huckabee seemed poised for a real shot. Ultimately, I have ended up having to choose between John McCain and Barack Obama. When these two candidate settled, I initially favored Obama because where I'm from, we could use a bit of change in Washington. The more I heard what he had to say however, he seemed more about press and talk. I started to feel sure that I would settle with McCain, but then the vice-president picks rolled in. I hated the pick of Sarah Palin. Do I think she is completely clean of the whole troopergate thing. No way. Combine that problem with terrible inexperience, and the pick of Joe Biden who is very skilled, and I favored Obama again. For a long time. However, Once again I grab that impression that he is just another politician. He can literally say anything he wants right now and neither the media or independents who are struggling in life will actually look at what he says.
Is everything he says impossible. No. I love some his ideas, but the world doesn't change because we have a black president of the United States. The economy doesn't look at the president and say, "Oh, now it's a democrat, let's start looking good."
I sat down, looked at the issues over and over again. Looked at the various plans, problems, and solutions to our country and I can't help it. I favor more with John McCain. Barack Obama could make history next week, and should he win, I wish him and our country the best of luck. I don't doubt that he has the capability of leading this country, and for the people of America, I hope he really does bring us hope. But when it comes to me, my values, my ideas; McCain is speaking more of my realistic language.
So for all of you curious as to who I have favored throughout the campaign, you might be surprised that I have changed my mind on a few occasions. Going through primary season, my favorite two candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee, and yes; Democrat John Edwards. Well obviously, Edwards turned out to be a bust for more than a few reasons, but Huckabee seemed poised for a real shot. Ultimately, I have ended up having to choose between John McCain and Barack Obama. When these two candidate settled, I initially favored Obama because where I'm from, we could use a bit of change in Washington. The more I heard what he had to say however, he seemed more about press and talk. I started to feel sure that I would settle with McCain, but then the vice-president picks rolled in. I hated the pick of Sarah Palin. Do I think she is completely clean of the whole troopergate thing. No way. Combine that problem with terrible inexperience, and the pick of Joe Biden who is very skilled, and I favored Obama again. For a long time. However, Once again I grab that impression that he is just another politician. He can literally say anything he wants right now and neither the media or independents who are struggling in life will actually look at what he says.
Is everything he says impossible. No. I love some his ideas, but the world doesn't change because we have a black president of the United States. The economy doesn't look at the president and say, "Oh, now it's a democrat, let's start looking good."
I sat down, looked at the issues over and over again. Looked at the various plans, problems, and solutions to our country and I can't help it. I favor more with John McCain. Barack Obama could make history next week, and should he win, I wish him and our country the best of luck. I don't doubt that he has the capability of leading this country, and for the people of America, I hope he really does bring us hope. But when it comes to me, my values, my ideas; McCain is speaking more of my realistic language.
Just Something to Think About
7 1/2 YEARS OF GEORGE BUSH
George Bush has been in office for 7 1/2 years. The first six the economy was fine. Remember, it was Iraq that costs Republican's in 2006, not the economy.
At the end of 2005:
1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.
4) the DOW JONES hit a record high--14,000 +
5) American's were buying new cars,taking cruises, vacations overseas, living large!
But American's wanted 'CHANGE'. So, in 2006 they voted in a Democratic Congress and yes--we got 'CHANGE' all right.
In the PAST YEAR:
1) Consumer confidence has plummeted;
2) Gasoline is now over $4 a gallon & climbing!;
3) Unemployment is up to 5.5% (a 10% increase);
4) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $12 TRILLION DOLLARS and prices still dropping;
5) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
6) as I write, THE DOW is likely around a new low~~
$2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS HAS EVAPORATED FROM THEIR STOCKS, BONDS & MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS! YES, IN 2006 AMERICA VOTED FOR CHANGE...AND WE SURE GOT IT!
REMEMBER THE PRESIDENT HAS NO CONTROL OVER ANY OF THESE ISSUES, ONLY CONGRESS.
AND WHAT HAS CONGRESS DONE IN THE LAST TWO YEARS?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
NOW THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT CLAIMS HE IS GOING TO REALLY GIVE US CHANGE ALONG WITH A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS!!!!
JUST HOW MUCH MORE 'CHANGE' DO YOU THINK YOU CAN STAND?
NOTE: This does not mean a full pledged Republican, just saw this on the internet and wanted to see what you thought.
George Bush has been in office for 7 1/2 years. The first six the economy was fine. Remember, it was Iraq that costs Republican's in 2006, not the economy.
At the end of 2005:
1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.
4) the DOW JONES hit a record high--14,000 +
5) American's were buying new cars,taking cruises, vacations overseas, living large!
But American's wanted 'CHANGE'. So, in 2006 they voted in a Democratic Congress and yes--we got 'CHANGE' all right.
In the PAST YEAR:
1) Consumer confidence has plummeted;
2) Gasoline is now over $4 a gallon & climbing!;
3) Unemployment is up to 5.5% (a 10% increase);
4) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $12 TRILLION DOLLARS and prices still dropping;
5) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
6) as I write, THE DOW is likely around a new low~~
$2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS HAS EVAPORATED FROM THEIR STOCKS, BONDS & MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS! YES, IN 2006 AMERICA VOTED FOR CHANGE...AND WE SURE GOT IT!
REMEMBER THE PRESIDENT HAS NO CONTROL OVER ANY OF THESE ISSUES, ONLY CONGRESS.
AND WHAT HAS CONGRESS DONE IN THE LAST TWO YEARS?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
NOW THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT CLAIMS HE IS GOING TO REALLY GIVE US CHANGE ALONG WITH A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS!!!!
JUST HOW MUCH MORE 'CHANGE' DO YOU THINK YOU CAN STAND?
NOTE: This does not mean a full pledged Republican, just saw this on the internet and wanted to see what you thought.
Time for My Personal Calls for Election 2008
Good news, I will be covering the election everday from here on out and will be updating my projections on the 24th, 31st, and the day of the election, so be sure check back often for updates.
And now for my calls three weeks from the election. Every week I take the oppurtunity to change these calls up until the election, however I don't have to change them.
My presidential call: Barack Obama will win the election on November 4th, 2008.
But it won't be a landslide. Although McCain is trailing right now, I predict that he will regain Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina. Nevada will be too close to call, however it will be Colorado that puts Obama over the edge, as he edges McCain by three or four points. He will have little struggle in New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsion, and Pennsylvania.
My Senate call: Democrats take 57 seats, and the GOP hold on to filibuster powers.
Alaska remains the toss-up, as it depends on how the trial of Ted Stevens goes, but I expect the Democrats to make gains in New Hampshire, Oregan, and New Mexico. I expect the GOP to hold in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, and Mississippi.
My House call: Democrats make more signifigant gains
I can't give an exact number but expect big gains for them once again.
And now for my calls three weeks from the election. Every week I take the oppurtunity to change these calls up until the election, however I don't have to change them.
My presidential call: Barack Obama will win the election on November 4th, 2008.
But it won't be a landslide. Although McCain is trailing right now, I predict that he will regain Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina. Nevada will be too close to call, however it will be Colorado that puts Obama over the edge, as he edges McCain by three or four points. He will have little struggle in New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsion, and Pennsylvania.
My Senate call: Democrats take 57 seats, and the GOP hold on to filibuster powers.
Alaska remains the toss-up, as it depends on how the trial of Ted Stevens goes, but I expect the Democrats to make gains in New Hampshire, Oregan, and New Mexico. I expect the GOP to hold in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, and Mississippi.
My House call: Democrats make more signifigant gains
I can't give an exact number but expect big gains for them once again.
I Will Be Back
I am sorry for my absence lately, and also for the lack of updates. It has been one thing after another and things have really piled up on me as of late. Expect an update on ALL the races either today or tomorrow and more frequent posting along with that.
UPDATE: The updated projection is now done. However only the senate and governor page has actually been updated, but the numbers are visable on the side as of now.
UPDATE: The updated projection is now done. However only the senate and governor page has actually been updated, but the numbers are visable on the side as of now.
John McCain - Acceptance Speech Ending - Republican National Convention 09/04/08
A bit slow at many points, but his reasons for loving his country and then ending was very well done. And by the way, his speech brought in better ratings than Obama.
Republican National Convention Highlights Day 3
Besides Mitt Romney, the speeches given last night were very strong. Giuliani was brilliant in his build up for Sarah Palin, and Palin certianly exceeded everyone's expectations.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
