What a difference from the election night results just last month. Saxby Chambliss retained his seat for senate in what turned out to be a landslide. At last check it appears as though Chambliss will win by a margin or 7 or 8 points, a far cry from the massive upswing of Democratic voters a month ago.
All the reasons I expected Chambliss to win yesterday rang pretty true, as black turnout was not very high, Republicans in a red state seemed pretty worried, and Chambliss pretty much had already won.
So if Coleman holds on in Minnesota, the GOP will likely feel pretty relieved that things did not turn out much worse.
Chambliss and Martin Scramble for Georgia Tonight, Coleman and Franken Still in Battle
It will be a big night for both parties as the run-off for senate in my home state of Georgia. Polls have shown a consistent 3-5 point advantage for Chambliss, which is welcomed by Republicans as the Minnesota race continues to be recounted. My own projection is pointing to a 54-46% win for the Republican, but one has to wonder who will show up the second time.
I think there is a good chance that Chambliss wins by a comfortable margin. Here are my list of reasons.
1- The Black Vote
With the race only centered on Chambliss and Martin, I do not see the high black turnout this time around. The African-American vote was ridiculously higher than normal due to Obama on the ticket, but I don't expect those kind of numbers again.
2- Previous Vote
Saxby Chambliss won on election night. He was 0.2% from claiming an actual majority. This was with the high democratic numbers and again, the African-American vote. I would have to assume that his three point margin should actually increase.
3- Fear of Filibuster-Proof Majority for Democrats
This is still Georgia. Saxby is not the most popular person in my state, but he is a Republican in a red state. Many GOPers are scared that the Democrats will take that majority, as Minnesota is still unsettled. Even many independents do not want one party with complete domination, and that certainly plays into the hands of Chambliss.
As for Minnesota, I have been looking very often on Coldheartedtruth for the latest information on the senate seat in his home state. Right now, the Coleman camp still maintains a lead of 135 votes with 92% of the state recounted. Many are starting to believe that Coleman will hold on despite the relentless efforts by Democrats to take the seat. For Republicans in Minnesota, you have to be thankful that there is no run-off, because Franken probably wins, especially with the backing of many big name Democrats in a blue state.
I think there is a good chance that Chambliss wins by a comfortable margin. Here are my list of reasons.
1- The Black Vote
With the race only centered on Chambliss and Martin, I do not see the high black turnout this time around. The African-American vote was ridiculously higher than normal due to Obama on the ticket, but I don't expect those kind of numbers again.
2- Previous Vote
Saxby Chambliss won on election night. He was 0.2% from claiming an actual majority. This was with the high democratic numbers and again, the African-American vote. I would have to assume that his three point margin should actually increase.
3- Fear of Filibuster-Proof Majority for Democrats
This is still Georgia. Saxby is not the most popular person in my state, but he is a Republican in a red state. Many GOPers are scared that the Democrats will take that majority, as Minnesota is still unsettled. Even many independents do not want one party with complete domination, and that certainly plays into the hands of Chambliss.
As for Minnesota, I have been looking very often on Coldheartedtruth for the latest information on the senate seat in his home state. Right now, the Coleman camp still maintains a lead of 135 votes with 92% of the state recounted. Many are starting to believe that Coleman will hold on despite the relentless efforts by Democrats to take the seat. For Republicans in Minnesota, you have to be thankful that there is no run-off, because Franken probably wins, especially with the backing of many big name Democrats in a blue state.
What happens if Things Don't Improve?
Here is a difficult question to ask should this be the case. What if in four years, we are at about the same point as we are right now. A near filibuster proof senate, huge majority in the house, and now a president, seemingly would hit democrats hard wouldn't it?
I'm not so sure. Should the economy continue it's terrible run, they will continue to tout Bush as the reason for the misery. Many question weather that can work in four years. If the GOP nominates someone with little ties to the Bush administration, can they really mention George Bush every other word, as they did the previous election? Maybe not, but then again, it will resort to the "Republicans did this to you, we are just having a hard time cleaning up their mess."
Maybe that will work, maybe it won't. I think if things show much improvement, then Democrats are in great shape in 2008, but a weak economy may actually help Republicans. Hm...sounds impossible, but interesting thing to look at.
I see it being another election cycle or two before the GOP starts to rebound. Then again, you never know.
I'm not so sure. Should the economy continue it's terrible run, they will continue to tout Bush as the reason for the misery. Many question weather that can work in four years. If the GOP nominates someone with little ties to the Bush administration, can they really mention George Bush every other word, as they did the previous election? Maybe not, but then again, it will resort to the "Republicans did this to you, we are just having a hard time cleaning up their mess."
Maybe that will work, maybe it won't. I think if things show much improvement, then Democrats are in great shape in 2008, but a weak economy may actually help Republicans. Hm...sounds impossible, but interesting thing to look at.
I see it being another election cycle or two before the GOP starts to rebound. Then again, you never know.
Congrats to 44th President Barack Obama, Future of Republican Party
What a big night for president-elect Barack Obama as he easily carries the election and will soon replace George W. Bush as our next president. I am trying my best to believe in Barack Obama, and if he does as much as he talks about, I'll be more than willing to support him in the coming years. I'm always excited with the coming of a new president. Who knows what the future holds, but the majority of Americans (and the world for that matter) got exactly what they wanted. God speed, President Obama.
And even though it must be a gloomy day for John McCain and his supporters, they should be proud of what he has accomplished. Despite everything that went wrong in his campaign, he certainly gave it everything he had against seemingly impossible odds, but he never gave up. He is an inspiration concerning the never give up attitude. Good luck in the future for you John McCain.
As for the future of the Grand Old Party, my first advice for Republicans is to NOT challenge Obama with Romney or Palin. What the GOP needs is some fresh faces and to keep their main focus on regaining senate and house seats. Certainly we don't know what is going to happen, but I expect at this point that Obama will be poised to a second term, start finding new leaders that can match Obama's youth, ability, and intelligence. Things look the same as it did in 1994 before you surged back, so doubt you will be gone forever.
God Bless.
And even though it must be a gloomy day for John McCain and his supporters, they should be proud of what he has accomplished. Despite everything that went wrong in his campaign, he certainly gave it everything he had against seemingly impossible odds, but he never gave up. He is an inspiration concerning the never give up attitude. Good luck in the future for you John McCain.
As for the future of the Grand Old Party, my first advice for Republicans is to NOT challenge Obama with Romney or Palin. What the GOP needs is some fresh faces and to keep their main focus on regaining senate and house seats. Certainly we don't know what is going to happen, but I expect at this point that Obama will be poised to a second term, start finding new leaders that can match Obama's youth, ability, and intelligence. Things look the same as it did in 1994 before you surged back, so doubt you will be gone forever.
God Bless.
Final Tally
Nothing changed from from last friday so the final tally is looking great for Democrats. Despite all of the numbers, I do expect things to be much closer than some of the polls have indicated, but we will see what happens!
A btw...PLEASE VOTE!!!
A btw...PLEASE VOTE!!!
New Projection: Obama on Cruise Control
Even as many national polls show the race getting closer, Obama still has a very clear advantage in the Electoral College, where it could be even worse. If not for previous elections weighed into my formula, Obama would also have Missouri and North Carolina. Even Indiana is on the verge of moving towards the Democrat.
If national polls continue to get closer in the next couple of days, election night may prove not to be a huge blowout. If the present numbers continue though, the election will be over once Virgina is called for Obama. McCain can't win without this state, along with Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, among others. A McCain victory would be nothing short of a miracle.
If national polls continue to get closer in the next couple of days, election night may prove not to be a huge blowout. If the present numbers continue though, the election will be over once Virgina is called for Obama. McCain can't win without this state, along with Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, among others. A McCain victory would be nothing short of a miracle.
Could I Vote for Obama?
Unless you know me personally, you probably wouldn't know that I'm not affiliated with a party. Although in more instances than not, I side with with Republicans, it doesn't mean I don't put a lot of stock in what each candidate has to say and wait to make my decision.
So for all of you curious as to who I have favored throughout the campaign, you might be surprised that I have changed my mind on a few occasions. Going through primary season, my favorite two candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee, and yes; Democrat John Edwards. Well obviously, Edwards turned out to be a bust for more than a few reasons, but Huckabee seemed poised for a real shot. Ultimately, I have ended up having to choose between John McCain and Barack Obama. When these two candidate settled, I initially favored Obama because where I'm from, we could use a bit of change in Washington. The more I heard what he had to say however, he seemed more about press and talk. I started to feel sure that I would settle with McCain, but then the vice-president picks rolled in. I hated the pick of Sarah Palin. Do I think she is completely clean of the whole troopergate thing. No way. Combine that problem with terrible inexperience, and the pick of Joe Biden who is very skilled, and I favored Obama again. For a long time. However, Once again I grab that impression that he is just another politician. He can literally say anything he wants right now and neither the media or independents who are struggling in life will actually look at what he says.
Is everything he says impossible. No. I love some his ideas, but the world doesn't change because we have a black president of the United States. The economy doesn't look at the president and say, "Oh, now it's a democrat, let's start looking good."
I sat down, looked at the issues over and over again. Looked at the various plans, problems, and solutions to our country and I can't help it. I favor more with John McCain. Barack Obama could make history next week, and should he win, I wish him and our country the best of luck. I don't doubt that he has the capability of leading this country, and for the people of America, I hope he really does bring us hope. But when it comes to me, my values, my ideas; McCain is speaking more of my realistic language.
So for all of you curious as to who I have favored throughout the campaign, you might be surprised that I have changed my mind on a few occasions. Going through primary season, my favorite two candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee, and yes; Democrat John Edwards. Well obviously, Edwards turned out to be a bust for more than a few reasons, but Huckabee seemed poised for a real shot. Ultimately, I have ended up having to choose between John McCain and Barack Obama. When these two candidate settled, I initially favored Obama because where I'm from, we could use a bit of change in Washington. The more I heard what he had to say however, he seemed more about press and talk. I started to feel sure that I would settle with McCain, but then the vice-president picks rolled in. I hated the pick of Sarah Palin. Do I think she is completely clean of the whole troopergate thing. No way. Combine that problem with terrible inexperience, and the pick of Joe Biden who is very skilled, and I favored Obama again. For a long time. However, Once again I grab that impression that he is just another politician. He can literally say anything he wants right now and neither the media or independents who are struggling in life will actually look at what he says.
Is everything he says impossible. No. I love some his ideas, but the world doesn't change because we have a black president of the United States. The economy doesn't look at the president and say, "Oh, now it's a democrat, let's start looking good."
I sat down, looked at the issues over and over again. Looked at the various plans, problems, and solutions to our country and I can't help it. I favor more with John McCain. Barack Obama could make history next week, and should he win, I wish him and our country the best of luck. I don't doubt that he has the capability of leading this country, and for the people of America, I hope he really does bring us hope. But when it comes to me, my values, my ideas; McCain is speaking more of my realistic language.
Just Something to Think About
7 1/2 YEARS OF GEORGE BUSH
George Bush has been in office for 7 1/2 years. The first six the economy was fine. Remember, it was Iraq that costs Republican's in 2006, not the economy.
At the end of 2005:
1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.
4) the DOW JONES hit a record high--14,000 +
5) American's were buying new cars,taking cruises, vacations overseas, living large!
But American's wanted 'CHANGE'. So, in 2006 they voted in a Democratic Congress and yes--we got 'CHANGE' all right.
In the PAST YEAR:
1) Consumer confidence has plummeted;
2) Gasoline is now over $4 a gallon & climbing!;
3) Unemployment is up to 5.5% (a 10% increase);
4) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $12 TRILLION DOLLARS and prices still dropping;
5) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
6) as I write, THE DOW is likely around a new low~~
$2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS HAS EVAPORATED FROM THEIR STOCKS, BONDS & MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS! YES, IN 2006 AMERICA VOTED FOR CHANGE...AND WE SURE GOT IT!
REMEMBER THE PRESIDENT HAS NO CONTROL OVER ANY OF THESE ISSUES, ONLY CONGRESS.
AND WHAT HAS CONGRESS DONE IN THE LAST TWO YEARS?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
NOW THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT CLAIMS HE IS GOING TO REALLY GIVE US CHANGE ALONG WITH A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS!!!!
JUST HOW MUCH MORE 'CHANGE' DO YOU THINK YOU CAN STAND?
NOTE: This does not mean a full pledged Republican, just saw this on the internet and wanted to see what you thought.
George Bush has been in office for 7 1/2 years. The first six the economy was fine. Remember, it was Iraq that costs Republican's in 2006, not the economy.
At the end of 2005:
1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.
4) the DOW JONES hit a record high--14,000 +
5) American's were buying new cars,taking cruises, vacations overseas, living large!
But American's wanted 'CHANGE'. So, in 2006 they voted in a Democratic Congress and yes--we got 'CHANGE' all right.
In the PAST YEAR:
1) Consumer confidence has plummeted;
2) Gasoline is now over $4 a gallon & climbing!;
3) Unemployment is up to 5.5% (a 10% increase);
4) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $12 TRILLION DOLLARS and prices still dropping;
5) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
6) as I write, THE DOW is likely around a new low~~
$2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS HAS EVAPORATED FROM THEIR STOCKS, BONDS & MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS! YES, IN 2006 AMERICA VOTED FOR CHANGE...AND WE SURE GOT IT!
REMEMBER THE PRESIDENT HAS NO CONTROL OVER ANY OF THESE ISSUES, ONLY CONGRESS.
AND WHAT HAS CONGRESS DONE IN THE LAST TWO YEARS?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
NOW THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT CLAIMS HE IS GOING TO REALLY GIVE US CHANGE ALONG WITH A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS!!!!
JUST HOW MUCH MORE 'CHANGE' DO YOU THINK YOU CAN STAND?
NOTE: This does not mean a full pledged Republican, just saw this on the internet and wanted to see what you thought.
Time for My Personal Calls for Election 2008
Good news, I will be covering the election everday from here on out and will be updating my projections on the 24th, 31st, and the day of the election, so be sure check back often for updates.
And now for my calls three weeks from the election. Every week I take the oppurtunity to change these calls up until the election, however I don't have to change them.
My presidential call: Barack Obama will win the election on November 4th, 2008.
But it won't be a landslide. Although McCain is trailing right now, I predict that he will regain Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina. Nevada will be too close to call, however it will be Colorado that puts Obama over the edge, as he edges McCain by three or four points. He will have little struggle in New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsion, and Pennsylvania.
My Senate call: Democrats take 57 seats, and the GOP hold on to filibuster powers.
Alaska remains the toss-up, as it depends on how the trial of Ted Stevens goes, but I expect the Democrats to make gains in New Hampshire, Oregan, and New Mexico. I expect the GOP to hold in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, and Mississippi.
My House call: Democrats make more signifigant gains
I can't give an exact number but expect big gains for them once again.
And now for my calls three weeks from the election. Every week I take the oppurtunity to change these calls up until the election, however I don't have to change them.
My presidential call: Barack Obama will win the election on November 4th, 2008.
But it won't be a landslide. Although McCain is trailing right now, I predict that he will regain Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina. Nevada will be too close to call, however it will be Colorado that puts Obama over the edge, as he edges McCain by three or four points. He will have little struggle in New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsion, and Pennsylvania.
My Senate call: Democrats take 57 seats, and the GOP hold on to filibuster powers.
Alaska remains the toss-up, as it depends on how the trial of Ted Stevens goes, but I expect the Democrats to make gains in New Hampshire, Oregan, and New Mexico. I expect the GOP to hold in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, and Mississippi.
My House call: Democrats make more signifigant gains
I can't give an exact number but expect big gains for them once again.
I Will Be Back
I am sorry for my absence lately, and also for the lack of updates. It has been one thing after another and things have really piled up on me as of late. Expect an update on ALL the races either today or tomorrow and more frequent posting along with that.
UPDATE: The updated projection is now done. However only the senate and governor page has actually been updated, but the numbers are visable on the side as of now.
UPDATE: The updated projection is now done. However only the senate and governor page has actually been updated, but the numbers are visable on the side as of now.
John McCain - Acceptance Speech Ending - Republican National Convention 09/04/08
A bit slow at many points, but his reasons for loving his country and then ending was very well done. And by the way, his speech brought in better ratings than Obama.
Republican National Convention Highlights Day 3
Besides Mitt Romney, the speeches given last night were very strong. Giuliani was brilliant in his build up for Sarah Palin, and Palin certianly exceeded everyone's expectations.
Rating Some of the Speeches
Mitt Romney- This is my least favorite speech thus far. After his speech yesterday, I found myself thankful that he was not the vice presidential pick. I was never really big on Romney and I think that his selection for VP would have been the beginning of the end for John McCain.
Mike Huckabee- A strong speech but nothing really suprising. This was who I wanted John McCain to pick for his VP. Palin is good choice, but Huckabee would have had the experience, religious morals, and a great story. I thought he related very well to those middle class and lower class Americans that have worked hard for a living, and that he didn't grow up rich. He also lost a lot of weight which I also thought was a great story.
Rudy Giuliani- I thought this was a very strong speech. He got the crowd going qucikly and he didn't let up on his attacks on Obama. I thought his attacks on Obama were very solid and should be helpful for McCain in the future. A terrific lead in for Palin.
Sarah Palin- Simply amazing. The reaction from the media was that she was brilliant. The first words from Wolf Blitzer was that she "Not just hit it out of the ballpark, but she hit a grand slam." I was worried that it wouldn't be a very good speech, and it started a bit slow, but I became more and more impressed as her speech went along. She hit Obama hard, and did it EXTREMELY well. Her speech left the GOP thinking to themselves: "Wow, maybe this was the right choice afterall."
I can't help it but the line: "You know they say that the only difference between hockey moms and pitbulls...is the lipstick." Classic.
Mike Huckabee- A strong speech but nothing really suprising. This was who I wanted John McCain to pick for his VP. Palin is good choice, but Huckabee would have had the experience, religious morals, and a great story. I thought he related very well to those middle class and lower class Americans that have worked hard for a living, and that he didn't grow up rich. He also lost a lot of weight which I also thought was a great story.
Rudy Giuliani- I thought this was a very strong speech. He got the crowd going qucikly and he didn't let up on his attacks on Obama. I thought his attacks on Obama were very solid and should be helpful for McCain in the future. A terrific lead in for Palin.
Sarah Palin- Simply amazing. The reaction from the media was that she was brilliant. The first words from Wolf Blitzer was that she "Not just hit it out of the ballpark, but she hit a grand slam." I was worried that it wouldn't be a very good speech, and it started a bit slow, but I became more and more impressed as her speech went along. She hit Obama hard, and did it EXTREMELY well. Her speech left the GOP thinking to themselves: "Wow, maybe this was the right choice afterall."
I can't help it but the line: "You know they say that the only difference between hockey moms and pitbulls...is the lipstick." Classic.
Highlights from the Republican National Convention, Day 2
A suprisingly strong speech on the part of Fred Thompson. Great job on McCain's life story. Joe Lieberman was a bit of a suprise as he actually went after Obama a bit, something few thought he would do.
Was Palin the Wrong Choice?
Hmm, I get the feeling that this pick is backfiring on John McCain. Truthfully, she is getting terrible press for all the wrong reasons as of late. A woman that CNN planted on the television today actually had the audacity to say that Sarah Palin was a bad mother. She blames Palin for her 17 year old daughter for getting pregnant, and also claims that she is a terrible parent because she has five children and that she should be putting her family first.
This is absolutely sickening. How does her daughter's pregnancy take away from her moral beliefs? I have had two brothers have children out of marriage, and I would be furious if some one would have the nerve to tell me I don't really hold true to my religious beliefs because of what they did. And Now, having too many kids is a cardinal sin when it comes to being a vice-president. I know that vice-president is a bit different from Governor of Alaska, but how is breaking the tying vote in congress more of a terrible task than taking on the problems of an entire state.
People also are on her for not having any foreign policy experience. Ahem, and Barack Obama has what experience? Amazing, the VICE-PRESIDENT nominee is taking a lot more heat than the PRESIDENTIAL nominee, despite the fact that she has more executive experience than Obama. How pathetic of the news media. How pathetic of people.
While she still isn't who I wanted to be the VP pick, here is someone that will show her a bit of respect.
This is absolutely sickening. How does her daughter's pregnancy take away from her moral beliefs? I have had two brothers have children out of marriage, and I would be furious if some one would have the nerve to tell me I don't really hold true to my religious beliefs because of what they did. And Now, having too many kids is a cardinal sin when it comes to being a vice-president. I know that vice-president is a bit different from Governor of Alaska, but how is breaking the tying vote in congress more of a terrible task than taking on the problems of an entire state.
People also are on her for not having any foreign policy experience. Ahem, and Barack Obama has what experience? Amazing, the VICE-PRESIDENT nominee is taking a lot more heat than the PRESIDENTIAL nominee, despite the fact that she has more executive experience than Obama. How pathetic of the news media. How pathetic of people.
While she still isn't who I wanted to be the VP pick, here is someone that will show her a bit of respect.
"It's Palin!": Sarah Palin Tabbed McCain's VP
In a suprise move, Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) has been selected as John McCain's running mate. McCain did a brilliant job keeping things under wraps, as the media swirled over the belief that it must have been Tim Pawlenty, and if not him, Mitt Romney, Tom Ridge, and Joe Lieberman were sure to be on top.
The selection of Sarah Palin was met with praise from the GOP, and mixture of shock and critics from the Democrats. Certainly part of the thought process was to get some Hillary voters. She is also a strong 'classic' Republican and pro (life), something many questioned on McCain.
My initial thought was that it would hurt McCain's experience argument, but from a better prospective, McCain's experience didn't go away. As far as executive experience, Palin is in better shape than Obama. So how could Obama even think about trying to raise that argument. He has had one year in the senate, and two years of campaigning.
I believe McCain is taking a chance, but my initial feelings are that it is a winning chance. I don't see it hurting, but it has MORE than potential when it comes to helping him.
We will see...
The selection of Sarah Palin was met with praise from the GOP, and mixture of shock and critics from the Democrats. Certainly part of the thought process was to get some Hillary voters. She is also a strong 'classic' Republican and pro (life), something many questioned on McCain.
My initial thought was that it would hurt McCain's experience argument, but from a better prospective, McCain's experience didn't go away. As far as executive experience, Palin is in better shape than Obama. So how could Obama even think about trying to raise that argument. He has had one year in the senate, and two years of campaigning.
I believe McCain is taking a chance, but my initial feelings are that it is a winning chance. I don't see it hurting, but it has MORE than potential when it comes to helping him.
We will see...
Breaking News: Pawlenty Not VP Pick, Sarah Palin Rumors Gain Steam
CNN has just confirmed that Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, who appeared the frount runner as of late last night, is NOT John McCain's choice for vice-president. Mitt Romney also appears unlikely at this point.
Sarah Palin has gotten a lot of media converage this morning, as a private jet from Alaska that fits bill of Palin landed this morning about 20 miles from where McCain is supposed to release his choice.
There are still a number of dark horses that should not be ruled out at the moment and those are: Tom Ridge (Pennsylvania), Joe Lieberman (Connecticut), and Rob Portman (Ohio).
Mitt Romney is still not out of the question, but he doesn't appear to have any plans to go to Ohio as of last report. Tom Ridge is also very unlikely at this point, as he said he also has no plans of heading to Ohio.
Sarah Palin has gotten a lot of media converage this morning, as a private jet from Alaska that fits bill of Palin landed this morning about 20 miles from where McCain is supposed to release his choice.
There are still a number of dark horses that should not be ruled out at the moment and those are: Tom Ridge (Pennsylvania), Joe Lieberman (Connecticut), and Rob Portman (Ohio).
Mitt Romney is still not out of the question, but he doesn't appear to have any plans to go to Ohio as of last report. Tom Ridge is also very unlikely at this point, as he said he also has no plans of heading to Ohio.
Barack Obama DNC Acceptance Speech (Short)
This was the other half of his speech. I could not find the whole thing this morning.
DNC National Convention: Day Two
About as expected, will satisfy Demcrats while GOP will continue to say Hillary doesn't really support Barack Obama.
Report: Tim Pawlenty May be VP Pick
John McCain has made his choice for VP. Although he has remained mum on the issue, Pawlenty has abruptly cancelled his AP interviews in Denver and is currently leaving. For conservitives, this is about as good as you can get. His pastor carries over 30 million evangelicals with him, and has the possibility at least to put Minnesota in the battleground area.
Again this is all speculation. McCain will meet with his VP pick in Ohio. John McCain is expected to acknowledge his pick late thursday or early friday.
Again this is all speculation. McCain will meet with his VP pick in Ohio. John McCain is expected to acknowledge his pick late thursday or early friday.
Hillary Clinton Speech
All eyes are on Hillary Clinton as she makes her big speech...what's gonna happen?
Update: Well, I believe Hillary gave a 'good' speech, but nothing that I wasn't expecting. Highlights will be up tomorrow.
Update: Well, I believe Hillary gave a 'good' speech, but nothing that I wasn't expecting. Highlights will be up tomorrow.
Highlights of the Democratic National Convention Day One
Pretty typical, although I must say Nancy Pelosi needs work. I also thought Jesse Jackson Jr. gave a very strong speech in my opinion.
Highlights
Each day I will be posting some of the highlights from the previous days convention online. Comments are more than welcome.
Barack America, Bounce
And it is offical, as Obama has chosen Joe Biden (D-Deleware) as his running mate. From my stand point, Obama has made a wise choice. Every candidate brings in new issues, but even though it hurts the 'McCain's too old' argument, it brings much needed experience, that Obama likely feels is his hurdle towards the presidency.
The McCain camp is gearing for a huge surge for Obama as the Democratic Covention starts. Typical candidates recieve a 5 point bounce from the convention. McCain is gearing up for a possible 6-8 point bounce. The VP pick along with the convention is very welcome to Obama as his lead has vanished and is now in the fight of his life.
New Projections
All projections have been updated today. My presidential page is still under constuction, as I am trying hard to get a nice setup, but it has been updated nonetheless.
I am also planning on putting some more competitive house races, as the list is getting longer and longer. I will let you know when that happens.
I am also planning on putting some more competitive house races, as the list is getting longer and longer. I will let you know when that happens.
McCain Not in Bad Shape Yet, Obama Did What?
People who are still convinced that McCain's chances of winning are dim should take note to just four years ago. At this time four years ago, Bush was getting beat by more than 150 electoral votes, and trailed by 5-10% in most polls. I know things are different now, but I would watch how polls will change once the vice-president nominees are in place.
By the way, what is up with Obama skipping his trip with wounded troops? He has no problem standing in front of thousands of screaming German citizens, with anti-American foriegn leaders, and 'ahem' plenty of photo oppurtunities, but wounded troops seem to be a problem. Makes me wonder who he really cares about. I have a least had admiration for his promises of hope and change, but I'm starting to see the ray of light that keeps telling me that this is only 'Barack Obama Publicity' tour. This is the same guy that is still in denial about the progress due to the surge mind you. Maybe more sad is that Liberals will actually belive him and defend that the surge has failed to the end of their lives. Go ahead, try to say that the surge didn't work. If John Murtha has said he saw progress from the surge, then Obama has serious issues. Hopefully America will see what this guy is saying soon.
By the way, what is up with Obama skipping his trip with wounded troops? He has no problem standing in front of thousands of screaming German citizens, with anti-American foriegn leaders, and 'ahem' plenty of photo oppurtunities, but wounded troops seem to be a problem. Makes me wonder who he really cares about. I have a least had admiration for his promises of hope and change, but I'm starting to see the ray of light that keeps telling me that this is only 'Barack Obama Publicity' tour. This is the same guy that is still in denial about the progress due to the surge mind you. Maybe more sad is that Liberals will actually belive him and defend that the surge has failed to the end of their lives. Go ahead, try to say that the surge didn't work. If John Murtha has said he saw progress from the surge, then Obama has serious issues. Hopefully America will see what this guy is saying soon.
Pelosi, Bush Battle
For President Bush: I can't say you are the perfect person to challenge congress on their failures, however it is a reasonable point. And as much as Pelosi would like to blame you for everything bad that happens in the world, you are right, America DOES deserve better.
For Nancy Pelosi: Ok, admittingly it is too easy to explain Bush's faliures as president, when he challenges congress own problems. But, as much as you love to poke fun at Bush's 30% approval rating, it is much easier to poke fun at congress'9% approval rating. I mean seriously, what have you REALLY accomplished? Bush can at least say he brought two democracy's to middle east countrys either ruled by a ruthless dictator, or by the tailban. And YOU have a hard time getting minimum wage passed. You are more pathetic than the president. Bless your heart!
For Americans: They both suck. Neither have helped gas prices go down, settle any conflicts, or made our everyday lives any better. How about you take time off from the stage and Wolf Blitzer Tonight and get something accomplished in bother your misrable terms.
Obama Extends Lead, New Insider Truths Feature
The latest projection is there for your viewing pleasure up on the top bar. Barack Obama extends his lead 3 more points, with the phantom poll in Montana pushing the Electoral Vote total to 309 to 229 in favor of Obama. In national polling, McCain continues to be statistically tied with Obama. The battleground states remain extremely close, but Obama has the advantage in most cases.
New feature for Insider Truths as of yesterday. Every thursday I will be posting a video to will range from either debates, hot topics, funny political videos etc. Right now, I have a video of people burning the American flag, and I'm intreasted to see your reation to the paticular subject.
New feature for Insider Truths as of yesterday. Every thursday I will be posting a video to will range from either debates, hot topics, funny political videos etc. Right now, I have a video of people burning the American flag, and I'm intreasted to see your reation to the paticular subject.
John McCain Rising
If you take a look at recent polling trends, especially the day by day trends, you will see that McCain has quietly moved to a tie in the latest Rasmussen Reports Poll. In the Gallup, McCain has moved to within 1 point. And Newsweek, who gave Obama a 12 point lead a month ago, has moved the race to just 3. We will have to see if this will also be reflected in the state to state polls (usually it does).
Liberals will sure be in denial about this, but I think Obama's message is starting to fall apart. He keeps changing his mind about things, not to mention he has had to retract several statments that he has made in order to appease certain people. And as hard as he trying to win over the Christian vote, it is not likely to work.
Here is also something that is sure to rattle some left wing cages. With all the media attention, which is 95% positive, in his favor...it is really saying something that he is still is in a tie with John McCain. McCain is forced to hold the party of a President that has left most people in disgust, and yet he is getting stronger and stronger...not weaker. If fact, I would make the case that by the start of september, it will McCain, not Obama with the advantage going through the heart of the election season.
Liberals will sure be in denial about this, but I think Obama's message is starting to fall apart. He keeps changing his mind about things, not to mention he has had to retract several statments that he has made in order to appease certain people. And as hard as he trying to win over the Christian vote, it is not likely to work.
Here is also something that is sure to rattle some left wing cages. With all the media attention, which is 95% positive, in his favor...it is really saying something that he is still is in a tie with John McCain. McCain is forced to hold the party of a President that has left most people in disgust, and yet he is getting stronger and stronger...not weaker. If fact, I would make the case that by the start of september, it will McCain, not Obama with the advantage going through the heart of the election season.
Projection Moved to Friday, New Insider Truths Argument
Due to another day of either worthless or no polls at all, I am going to wait until the end of the week to post my next projection.
New argument in the Insider Truths section, make sure to check that out as soon as possible!
New argument in the Insider Truths section, make sure to check that out as soon as possible!
Next Projections, Insider Truths Update
I am planning to make an updated prediction so make sure to keep on the lookout. Right now, there will not even be a change in the projection due to a lack in polls, and if that is the case I may move it back to Friday.
Thus far I have been pretty impressed by the response to Insider Truths. I was worried it would draw little response, but it has done pretty well to this point. Please continue to comment and continue to spread the word! I will have a fresh debate in store for monday, so be ready!
Thus far I have been pretty impressed by the response to Insider Truths. I was worried it would draw little response, but it has done pretty well to this point. Please continue to comment and continue to spread the word! I will have a fresh debate in store for monday, so be ready!
Happy Birthday America!
May you continue to be the greatest country in the world forever! Let us not forget all those who died to create and protect the United States...God Bless America
New: Insider Truths
You will notice on the above Link Bar, that there is a site called Insider Truths. Years before I even created a projection site, my daily dose of politics consisted of entering other's webpages such as Election Projection and C.H. Truth and picking arguments with anyone that would respond all day. It was fun, and I really miss doing it, so I have decided to create a page just for that purpose.
The concept is pretty simple. I will throw out a topic, and every diehard democrat or republican, liberal or religious right, Indpendent or completely dependent...it doesn't matter. The most signifigant part of this plan is let you say pretty much anything you want. I want real arguments and true feelings so little should be held back. Please check it out, because I would hate to have to get rid of it! It is already up and running, and many features will be added as time goes along.
The concept is pretty simple. I will throw out a topic, and every diehard democrat or republican, liberal or religious right, Indpendent or completely dependent...it doesn't matter. The most signifigant part of this plan is let you say pretty much anything you want. I want real arguments and true feelings so little should be held back. Please check it out, because I would hate to have to get rid of it! It is already up and running, and many features will be added as time goes along.
New Projections are Here...
I'm refreshed, and unlike McCain in the polls, I'm doing great as well. The projections are here and just to assure, it is currently only a rough draft of what I hope to make the projection pages look like. So hopefully I can continue to expand on the site.
So here is the deal for my lastest projection. Barack Obama continues to pull away from John McCain, but despite those numbers, I think John McCain shouldn't feel down in the dumps. There actually are encouraging things to look at for him. Here are some...
1. Despite a recent 'out there' poll by Survey USA, three straight polls have showed John McCain with a moderate lead in Indiana. This is a state that is too reliable for me to believe it could make that signifigant of a jump.
2. He continues to hold a narrow lead in Nevada. Pretty good sign considering he is in his roughest polling trend to date.
3. Missouri is doing much better for McCain as of late, I think he will be fine...but beware, Obama is ready to steal this state away.
4. Florida has consistently polled well for him..look for him to take this state.
5. All the states that McCain needs to be close are. Colorado is within 2 point, Ohio is within 2 points, Pennsylvania is with 4, Michigan is within 4, Oregan within 4, and Iowa within 5. Expect Virgina to jump ship back in favor of McCain at some point.
For Barack Obama, there is really only two you can really say.
1. You have the huge lead in both state by state polling, and national polling.
2. You are keeping many solid southern states such as Virgina, Missouri, Arkansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana pretty close. And even though you may lose every single one of these states, all the money McCain is forced to pour into these states is money he won't be putting into Ohio, Michigan, Oregan, Colorado amoung others.
So here is the deal for my lastest projection. Barack Obama continues to pull away from John McCain, but despite those numbers, I think John McCain shouldn't feel down in the dumps. There actually are encouraging things to look at for him. Here are some...
1. Despite a recent 'out there' poll by Survey USA, three straight polls have showed John McCain with a moderate lead in Indiana. This is a state that is too reliable for me to believe it could make that signifigant of a jump.
2. He continues to hold a narrow lead in Nevada. Pretty good sign considering he is in his roughest polling trend to date.
3. Missouri is doing much better for McCain as of late, I think he will be fine...but beware, Obama is ready to steal this state away.
4. Florida has consistently polled well for him..look for him to take this state.
5. All the states that McCain needs to be close are. Colorado is within 2 point, Ohio is within 2 points, Pennsylvania is with 4, Michigan is within 4, Oregan within 4, and Iowa within 5. Expect Virgina to jump ship back in favor of McCain at some point.
For Barack Obama, there is really only two you can really say.
1. You have the huge lead in both state by state polling, and national polling.
2. You are keeping many solid southern states such as Virgina, Missouri, Arkansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana pretty close. And even though you may lose every single one of these states, all the money McCain is forced to pour into these states is money he won't be putting into Ohio, Michigan, Oregan, Colorado amoung others.
I'm Back
I'm am very sorry for the delay and such. I'm going through a tough time in my life and I needed a few days to think things out. I don't want to really get into it but it was tough on me and my family, but I'm thankful to God for helping me though these tough times and I feel good about the future. I did recieve a couple of e-mails wishing me the best, and I appreciate that and it did mean a lot to me.
Now moving forward, McCain is not looking good early on in his bid for president. Just as I expected a month ago, Obama is soaring since he secured the nomination for president. Once my next projection is up and running you should see Obama picking up Michigan, Missouri, and Virgina. If the current trend continues by the next projection look for Indiana, Nevada, and Florida to follow. It is a tough time for McCain at the moment, but don't make the mistake of thinking Obama isn't vurlnable to a fallout.
Now moving forward, McCain is not looking good early on in his bid for president. Just as I expected a month ago, Obama is soaring since he secured the nomination for president. Once my next projection is up and running you should see Obama picking up Michigan, Missouri, and Virgina. If the current trend continues by the next projection look for Indiana, Nevada, and Florida to follow. It is a tough time for McCain at the moment, but don't make the mistake of thinking Obama isn't vurlnable to a fallout.
Short Break
I am very under the weather right now, and I am finding it hard to focus at this very moment. I am hoping not to be out long, but I simply can't do it right now. I will update soon.
Quick Updates Coming, Upcoming Vaction
I am in the process of updating the President, Senate, House, and Governor pages today. I am actually tied up today, but I am working hard to complete them by the middle of the day. The presidential race has actually been updated, but the map I had been using was deleted by accident, so I am looking to find another one, hopefully a better one at that. Although I plan to have the actual pages completed, the state by state pages will have to be updated later.
I thought I would let you know I am planning a short vaction to South Carolina next week. I may be leaving Monday, but I am considering leaving a couple of days later. I will wait and see. I shouldn't be gone more than a few days.
I thought I would let you know I am planning a short vaction to South Carolina next week. I may be leaving Monday, but I am considering leaving a couple of days later. I will wait and see. I shouldn't be gone more than a few days.
State to State Races: Washington, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Wyoming
We have reached the end of the 'State to State Races' tour. I actually got this done rather quickly considering the amount of imformation I was forced to put down. It took me just a month before I made it through 50 states and the District of Columbia and today we come to a close.
Washington- I can't wait to see the Governor rematch between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi. If you don't know that story by now, you have missed quite a bit. After a few recounts showing both candidates with a win, Gregoire was the one given the Governor's mansion, and a huge rematch is brewing.
West Virgina- I pretty much expect John McCain to pull off a narrow but safe victory in this state, but the Democrats will dominate the rest of the board.
Wisconsin- George W. Bush was very close to taking this state twice, but came up short both times. John McCain will certainly be competitive in this state but the jury is out on if he can capture enough votes to win.
Wyoming- Due to the passing of Craig Thomas, there is two senate seats up for grabs this time around. Both will be taken by the Republican, as the GOP should take the whole board in this state.
Stay tuned for: A wild and crazy election season!
Washington- I can't wait to see the Governor rematch between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi. If you don't know that story by now, you have missed quite a bit. After a few recounts showing both candidates with a win, Gregoire was the one given the Governor's mansion, and a huge rematch is brewing.
West Virgina- I pretty much expect John McCain to pull off a narrow but safe victory in this state, but the Democrats will dominate the rest of the board.
Wisconsin- George W. Bush was very close to taking this state twice, but came up short both times. John McCain will certainly be competitive in this state but the jury is out on if he can capture enough votes to win.
Wyoming- Due to the passing of Craig Thomas, there is two senate seats up for grabs this time around. Both will be taken by the Republican, as the GOP should take the whole board in this state.
Stay tuned for: A wild and crazy election season!
Next Presidential Analysis
I am ending my 'State to State Races' tour within the hour, so I thought is was a good time to tell you that I will be updating my presidential anaylsis tommorow. I guess I'll let off a hint and tell you that Barack Obama will again be leading John McCain, but actually by a smaller number than my intial projection. I plan to put it on there around noon tomorrow, so keep on the lookout.
State to State Races: Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virgina
This is my next to last update, the other one will be up in just a few hours so be sure to check out the end of the whole thing. Today, we will start with...
Tennessee- I think Tennessee will fall easily into the GOP's hands, and I think Lamar Alexander will retain his seat in the senate will a comfortable win. If Bob Corker, who narrowly won his senate seat, wins despite the blue wave, I think Alexander will hold his seat as the incumbant.
Texas- The mega state of Texas will be won agian by the GOP, and the senate should be close but comfortable in 2008.
Utah- The GOP's most conservitive state, will remain that way once again in 2008 as the GOP is VERY safe all the way down the board.
Vermont- The Democrats will be very comfortable in this state, save the Governor's race where James Douglas (R) should cruise to a victory for the GOP.
Virgina- This state has been trending democrat lately and thus far polls have been close. However, McCain will win this state and take it's electoral votes. Farther down the list, presents good oppurtunities for the Democrats to take a senate and house race.
Stay tuned for: Washington, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Wyoming
Tennessee- I think Tennessee will fall easily into the GOP's hands, and I think Lamar Alexander will retain his seat in the senate will a comfortable win. If Bob Corker, who narrowly won his senate seat, wins despite the blue wave, I think Alexander will hold his seat as the incumbant.
Texas- The mega state of Texas will be won agian by the GOP, and the senate should be close but comfortable in 2008.
Utah- The GOP's most conservitive state, will remain that way once again in 2008 as the GOP is VERY safe all the way down the board.
Vermont- The Democrats will be very comfortable in this state, save the Governor's race where James Douglas (R) should cruise to a victory for the GOP.
Virgina- This state has been trending democrat lately and thus far polls have been close. However, McCain will win this state and take it's electoral votes. Farther down the list, presents good oppurtunities for the Democrats to take a senate and house race.
Stay tuned for: Washington, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Wyoming
State to State Races: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota
Wow, we are getting closer and closer to the end. In fact, by tomorrow night we will have reached the end of the tour. Were not there yet though, so lets keep going to...
Pennsylvania- Don't count out this state for the GOP. Bush has kept this state close twice and McCain should do the same. One of the big rays of hope for the GOP came during the Democratic primary, when 1 in 4 of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain if Obama was on the ballot. Another large number said they would not vote. Obviously I don't buy that going into November, but if there could be 'just enough' votes trailed away from Obama, McCain could pull the upset.
Rhode Island- What can you possibly say about this state? All democrats are safe down the board, and they will have little challenge from the GOP.
South Carolina- Expect the Democrats to com closer than in past elections in the national election, but don't expect things to be very competitive. Early polls do shows things closer than usual, but I don't see much coming from it.
South Dakota- On the national scale at least, the GOP will win quite easily. Akward that a state that votes so strongly for the Republican would have little representation under it. I do expect Democrat Tim Johnson to garner some sort of challenge, but I have a hard time believing that he will lose. The democrat in the house is also safe.
Stay tuned for: Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virgina
Pennsylvania- Don't count out this state for the GOP. Bush has kept this state close twice and McCain should do the same. One of the big rays of hope for the GOP came during the Democratic primary, when 1 in 4 of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain if Obama was on the ballot. Another large number said they would not vote. Obviously I don't buy that going into November, but if there could be 'just enough' votes trailed away from Obama, McCain could pull the upset.
Rhode Island- What can you possibly say about this state? All democrats are safe down the board, and they will have little challenge from the GOP.
South Carolina- Expect the Democrats to com closer than in past elections in the national election, but don't expect things to be very competitive. Early polls do shows things closer than usual, but I don't see much coming from it.
South Dakota- On the national scale at least, the GOP will win quite easily. Akward that a state that votes so strongly for the Republican would have little representation under it. I do expect Democrat Tim Johnson to garner some sort of challenge, but I have a hard time believing that he will lose. The democrat in the house is also safe.
Stay tuned for: Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virgina
Third Party Factor
I just had a thought thinking about the upcoming election, and that being the factor that the third paties will have on this election as opposed to previous elections. Everyone know about Ralph Nader, who is running again as an Idependent, and how he made an impact on the 2000 election. Not to mention how bad Republicans faired due to the large impact of Ross Perot in 1992, and 1996. Independents and third parties can make a big difference in the election, and for some reason, I get the feeling it may play a role again in 2008. Take, for example, a recent poll by CNN that includes both Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate. Barack Obama leads McCain by a 47% to 43% margin. Nader draws an astounding 6%, and even Barr draws a modest 2% in that poll. Without those candidates, it is a 49% to 46% win for Obama.
Bob Barr, a former Republican from Georgia, may take votes away from John McCain. Ralph Nader may take away from both. As seen, when those candidates are included, McCain is the one that really suffers the most. Nader and Barr may both fall off the map as time goes along. Nader had the same trend going into 2004, and as he failed to make the ballot in many states, the less affect he had on the overall election.
So logically, we could run into another 2000, where one party feels cheated due to the prospects of the third party candidates. But moving forward, is John McCain the one that would really take the bigger hit? Ralph Nader is far left, as is most of the Libertarian Party, so it seems like Democrats unhappy with Obama would be the ones trailing to a third party. Then again, maybe right-of-center Republicans will cling to Bob Barr, a former Republican.
Intreasting to think about as November draws closer and closer...
Bob Barr, a former Republican from Georgia, may take votes away from John McCain. Ralph Nader may take away from both. As seen, when those candidates are included, McCain is the one that really suffers the most. Nader and Barr may both fall off the map as time goes along. Nader had the same trend going into 2004, and as he failed to make the ballot in many states, the less affect he had on the overall election.
So logically, we could run into another 2000, where one party feels cheated due to the prospects of the third party candidates. But moving forward, is John McCain the one that would really take the bigger hit? Ralph Nader is far left, as is most of the Libertarian Party, so it seems like Democrats unhappy with Obama would be the ones trailing to a third party. Then again, maybe right-of-center Republicans will cling to Bob Barr, a former Republican.
Intreasting to think about as November draws closer and closer...
State to State Races: Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon
I only have three states lined up for today, but granted I have been obviously busy this week so lets continue on with a couple of big states.
First let us start with the great state of Ohio. Ohio was a disaster for the GOP in 2006. They lost their senate seat, governor seat, and a big house seat as they threw out the scandal-ridden GOP candidates. So we move on to this election, and Ohio seems to be up in the air once again. Bush narrowly took the state in 2000 and 2004, but again with the recent nationwide rise of the Democratic party, it will be difficult for McCain to retain the state.
Oklahoma doesn't offer very much for the 2008 election. John McCain will easily win the state, and all of it's senators and house members are safe for now.
And then there is Oregon. People seem to little remember how close George W. Bush was to winning this state in 2000, and even though John Kerry stretched it to a four point win, this isn't a lock for the democrats. This one may be a close battleground by the time of the election.
Stay tuned for: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota
First let us start with the great state of Ohio. Ohio was a disaster for the GOP in 2006. They lost their senate seat, governor seat, and a big house seat as they threw out the scandal-ridden GOP candidates. So we move on to this election, and Ohio seems to be up in the air once again. Bush narrowly took the state in 2000 and 2004, but again with the recent nationwide rise of the Democratic party, it will be difficult for McCain to retain the state.
Oklahoma doesn't offer very much for the 2008 election. John McCain will easily win the state, and all of it's senators and house members are safe for now.
And then there is Oregon. People seem to little remember how close George W. Bush was to winning this state in 2000, and even though John Kerry stretched it to a four point win, this isn't a lock for the democrats. This one may be a close battleground by the time of the election.
Stay tuned for: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota
What a Day!
I have made so many changes up to this point that I think my head is getting ready to explode...and still I have a ton of work to do, most apparent in the President, Senate, House, and Governor pages. For some reason all of those links were transfered into the new link bar, and I have not figured out a way to put them into links. If I am unable to do so, I will have to go in and do manually, which requires hours of work. Either way, I plan to have it all done by Sunday night. Keep on the lookout!
UPDATE: Turns out I was able to go in and get it all done last night, so all the pages have been updated. I would certianly like to expand on the new design, and so I will continue to do work. I am very happy with how the page turned out, and I am excited about it looking forward.
UPDATE: Turns out I was able to go in and get it all done last night, so all the pages have been updated. I would certianly like to expand on the new design, and so I will continue to do work. I am very happy with how the page turned out, and I am excited about it looking forward.
Overhaul
I am trying to do some updating to the graphic design to the site, and as is obviously seen, it is a real mess right now. Hopefully I will have this worked out by days end. Again sorry for the mess!
A Few Notes
For those asking about how I will do updates with the presidential elections, along with the rest of the projections, my plan is to update every month until about September. Once September roles around I will do weekly updates up until election day.
Another point I wanted to point out is that I am slightly changing a part of my election formula. In the 2006 races, I gave far too much benefit to the incumbant. As 2006 came to a close, it was obvious that it did very little for the numerous Republicans that feel victim to the Democratic wave. I will not be taking it out of the formula, only drawing it a back a bit so that it is much more accurate to the polls. I add a section to my page showing how I do my formula soon.
Another point I wanted to point out is that I am slightly changing a part of my election formula. In the 2006 races, I gave far too much benefit to the incumbant. As 2006 came to a close, it was obvious that it did very little for the numerous Republicans that feel victim to the Democratic wave. I will not be taking it out of the formula, only drawing it a back a bit so that it is much more accurate to the polls. I add a section to my page showing how I do my formula soon.
State to State Races: Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota
We continue on today, as we closer and closer to the end, with a look at states from midwest, New England, South, and Great Plains.
Well start with Nebraska. Like Maine, it is split into districts that represent electoral votes. And as Maine's districts will all go to the democrats, all of Nebraskas will go to the GOP. The GOP's senate seat should be safe, and there are no competitive house races.
Next there is Nevada. Intially, I projected that the Democrats would pick this seat up. That is the current projection you will find on that page, but poll after poll indicates that John McCain is doing very well in this state and is the favorite to win this state. Other than it's battleground status, there is no senate, governor, or competitive house races.
And then the battleground of New Hampshire. It is nearly the oppisite of Nevada. I intially thought this would be a great chance for a win for the GOP, but polls now indicate that Barack Obama has had the slight advantage. A huge race is brewing in the Senate, as Republican John Sununu is in serious danger of losing his seat to the democratic challenger. There is also a competitive house race.
We move on to New Jersey. For a time in 2004, New Jersey seemed to be polling close. I doubt that will ever be the case in 2008. The democrat should easily win the race. In the house, two open seats that the GOP may lose, are on the table this year. The GOP will be glad if they can keep at least one of those seats.
On to New Mexico. Yet another battleground state that may go down to the wire, I expect this state to change colors time and time again as the election draws near. New Mexico is another state the GOP may lose a senate seat.
The mega state of New York follows. You can't say much about New York, other than it is very safe for the Democrat. They have four house races to look into though.
And then there is North Carolina. North Carolina may not be as safe for Republicans as it should be, but don't expect anything dramatic this coming election.
Finally we reach North Dakota. The GOP will domintate the presidential race here, along with the Governor race, despite how much they have lost in the senate and hosue.
Stay tuned for: Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregan
Well start with Nebraska. Like Maine, it is split into districts that represent electoral votes. And as Maine's districts will all go to the democrats, all of Nebraskas will go to the GOP. The GOP's senate seat should be safe, and there are no competitive house races.
Next there is Nevada. Intially, I projected that the Democrats would pick this seat up. That is the current projection you will find on that page, but poll after poll indicates that John McCain is doing very well in this state and is the favorite to win this state. Other than it's battleground status, there is no senate, governor, or competitive house races.
And then the battleground of New Hampshire. It is nearly the oppisite of Nevada. I intially thought this would be a great chance for a win for the GOP, but polls now indicate that Barack Obama has had the slight advantage. A huge race is brewing in the Senate, as Republican John Sununu is in serious danger of losing his seat to the democratic challenger. There is also a competitive house race.
We move on to New Jersey. For a time in 2004, New Jersey seemed to be polling close. I doubt that will ever be the case in 2008. The democrat should easily win the race. In the house, two open seats that the GOP may lose, are on the table this year. The GOP will be glad if they can keep at least one of those seats.
On to New Mexico. Yet another battleground state that may go down to the wire, I expect this state to change colors time and time again as the election draws near. New Mexico is another state the GOP may lose a senate seat.
The mega state of New York follows. You can't say much about New York, other than it is very safe for the Democrat. They have four house races to look into though.
And then there is North Carolina. North Carolina may not be as safe for Republicans as it should be, but don't expect anything dramatic this coming election.
Finally we reach North Dakota. The GOP will domintate the presidential race here, along with the Governor race, despite how much they have lost in the senate and hosue.
Stay tuned for: Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregan
New Poll
New poll up now. It is a generic ballot asking you to make your choice for the next president of the United States. Have at it!
State to State Races: Maine, Maryland, Massachusettes, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana
All of the M's are in store for you today as we take a look at 8 states in the upcoming election. We can start with...
Maine- Maine's split districts will go to the democrats in 2008, with little worry. In the senate, Republican incumbant Susan Collins will have the fight of her life. That is certianly a race you should look at.
Maryland- There is little to talk about in Maryland this time around. It's 10 electoral votes are safe for the upcoming election, and there are no senate, governor, or competitive house races.
Massachusettes- Similar to Maryland, there is little to be said of this state. The GOP has little chance to win in Massachusettes, despite a couple of polls showing the race is close. In the senate, John Kerry (yes, that John Kerry) will also cruise to a victory.
Michigan- This state is expected to be a big battleground in this election cycle. Polls are tight, and candidates will pour money into winning this state. I give the democrat the slight edge. As for the senate, Carl Levin (D) will tag another easy victory for the Democrats. There is a house race to look at in district 7, where Tim Walberg (R) will try to defend his seat.
Minnesota- I don't think the GOP will put up a strong fight in the presidential race in 2008. The real races happen in the senate and house. In the senate, republican Norm Coleman will fight to defend his seat. Many pundits have this race really close, and is yet another race the GOP will be forced to fight to defend. Also a big race in district 3 you should pay attention to.
Mississippi- A good place for the GOP in the next election, it's 6 electoral votes are safe for them. It has two senate races this year, but both will likely go to the GOP.
Missouri- A place that the GOP is starting to lose it's grasp on, it should still hang on to win the presidential race. However, I expect a DEM win in the Governor race.
Montana- For the presidential and house races, the GOP is in great shape. In the senate and governor race, the Democrats are in great shape. Little more can be said of the state.
Again, if there is any incorrect or old information that I has been included to the pages, please let me know so that they can be corrected.
Stay tuned for: States that start with the letter N
Maine- Maine's split districts will go to the democrats in 2008, with little worry. In the senate, Republican incumbant Susan Collins will have the fight of her life. That is certianly a race you should look at.
Maryland- There is little to talk about in Maryland this time around. It's 10 electoral votes are safe for the upcoming election, and there are no senate, governor, or competitive house races.
Massachusettes- Similar to Maryland, there is little to be said of this state. The GOP has little chance to win in Massachusettes, despite a couple of polls showing the race is close. In the senate, John Kerry (yes, that John Kerry) will also cruise to a victory.
Michigan- This state is expected to be a big battleground in this election cycle. Polls are tight, and candidates will pour money into winning this state. I give the democrat the slight edge. As for the senate, Carl Levin (D) will tag another easy victory for the Democrats. There is a house race to look at in district 7, where Tim Walberg (R) will try to defend his seat.
Minnesota- I don't think the GOP will put up a strong fight in the presidential race in 2008. The real races happen in the senate and house. In the senate, republican Norm Coleman will fight to defend his seat. Many pundits have this race really close, and is yet another race the GOP will be forced to fight to defend. Also a big race in district 3 you should pay attention to.
Mississippi- A good place for the GOP in the next election, it's 6 electoral votes are safe for them. It has two senate races this year, but both will likely go to the GOP.
Missouri- A place that the GOP is starting to lose it's grasp on, it should still hang on to win the presidential race. However, I expect a DEM win in the Governor race.
Montana- For the presidential and house races, the GOP is in great shape. In the senate and governor race, the Democrats are in great shape. Little more can be said of the state.
Again, if there is any incorrect or old information that I has been included to the pages, please let me know so that they can be corrected.
Stay tuned for: States that start with the letter N
State to State Races: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana
This time around we got a few probable GOP wins in the presidential race, and along with more wins in the senate and house.
First lets take a look at Kansas. The GOP has to love Kansas for the upcoming year. It's six electoral votes, while small, and no doubt in the GOP hands. In the senate, Incumbant Pat Roberts looks to be secure in his battle againist Democrat Lee Jones. It also represents a steller chance for the GOP to retake a seat from the demcrats in District 2. Freshman Congress memeber Nancy Boyda has the fight of her life againist Repubican Jim Ryun.
Update: Thanks to some help from the comment thread, I have made some modifications to the Kansas page. I was a bit of a victim of old information, and so changes have been made such as Jim Slattery will challenge Lee Jones for the Dem nomination in the senate, and Lynn Jenkins has been added to the mix in the House race. If you should find any other old or misused data, I would be thankful if you could let me know. Thanks!
Next take a look at Kentucky. Much like Kansas, it's electoral votes look safe, as does Kentucky senator Mitch McConnell. And agian, there represents a possible pickup oppurtunity for Republicans, as another freshman congressman, John Yarmouth will battle to retain his seat.
Then there is Louisiana. This is a state that has the potential to be intreasting. It's nine electoral votes should be in John McCain's hands, but the senate seat is where the real fun is. A lot of people are expecting a big battle, as Democrat Mary Landrieu, who narrowly won her last two terms, seems to face rough competition in the next election. Not to mention that many Democrats are believed to have relocated to other states in the country. Only time will tell how this one will shape out.
I am tyring to get a whole heap of states done in the next two weeks, so stay tuned for that in the next few weeks.
First lets take a look at Kansas. The GOP has to love Kansas for the upcoming year. It's six electoral votes, while small, and no doubt in the GOP hands. In the senate, Incumbant Pat Roberts looks to be secure in his battle againist Democrat Lee Jones. It also represents a steller chance for the GOP to retake a seat from the demcrats in District 2. Freshman Congress memeber Nancy Boyda has the fight of her life againist Repubican Jim Ryun.
Update: Thanks to some help from the comment thread, I have made some modifications to the Kansas page. I was a bit of a victim of old information, and so changes have been made such as Jim Slattery will challenge Lee Jones for the Dem nomination in the senate, and Lynn Jenkins has been added to the mix in the House race. If you should find any other old or misused data, I would be thankful if you could let me know. Thanks!
Next take a look at Kentucky. Much like Kansas, it's electoral votes look safe, as does Kentucky senator Mitch McConnell. And agian, there represents a possible pickup oppurtunity for Republicans, as another freshman congressman, John Yarmouth will battle to retain his seat.
Then there is Louisiana. This is a state that has the potential to be intreasting. It's nine electoral votes should be in John McCain's hands, but the senate seat is where the real fun is. A lot of people are expecting a big battle, as Democrat Mary Landrieu, who narrowly won her last two terms, seems to face rough competition in the next election. Not to mention that many Democrats are believed to have relocated to other states in the country. Only time will tell how this one will shape out.
I am tyring to get a whole heap of states done in the next two weeks, so stay tuned for that in the next few weeks.
State to State Races: Indiana, Iowa
I only have two for you today, but one of them is amoung the most important for this years election.
But we must start with Indiana. John McCain should have little trouble in picking up Indiana's 11 electoral votes. It is a very reliable state for the GOP and anything other than a GOP win would be a suprise. There is a governor race heating up though, as Mitch Daniels, Jr. will be battling out Jill Long Thompson for the Governor's Mansion. It is currently rated as a Weak GOP Hold, but this is a race that I think the Incumbant will pull away as things move forward.
Then there is the Ultra-Battleground of Iowa. This state has switched colors for the last two election cycles and it should come down to the wire once again in 2008. For the time being, Iowa goes into the hands of the Democrat as the Republicans look to rebuff in the next election. As for the senate race, Tom Harkin should cruise to a victroy again. There is a serious house race to look into. District 2 was an mega suprise as David Loebsack came from no-man's land to shock the Republican. Although there are not any present candidates, this normally heavy GOP district should see a tough battle into election day.
Stay tuned for: Kansas, Kentucky, and possibly more
But we must start with Indiana. John McCain should have little trouble in picking up Indiana's 11 electoral votes. It is a very reliable state for the GOP and anything other than a GOP win would be a suprise. There is a governor race heating up though, as Mitch Daniels, Jr. will be battling out Jill Long Thompson for the Governor's Mansion. It is currently rated as a Weak GOP Hold, but this is a race that I think the Incumbant will pull away as things move forward.
Then there is the Ultra-Battleground of Iowa. This state has switched colors for the last two election cycles and it should come down to the wire once again in 2008. For the time being, Iowa goes into the hands of the Democrat as the Republicans look to rebuff in the next election. As for the senate race, Tom Harkin should cruise to a victroy again. There is a serious house race to look into. District 2 was an mega suprise as David Loebsack came from no-man's land to shock the Republican. Although there are not any present candidates, this normally heavy GOP district should see a tough battle into election day.
Stay tuned for: Kansas, Kentucky, and possibly more
First Presidential Analysis, Update
I am still in the construction stage of updating all of the sites, not to mention in the middle of the 'State to State Races' tour, but I decided to go ahead and put up my first Presidential Analysis. It can be located under the 2008 projections and into the President category. I have not included it into the overall analysis.
My first projection indicates that Barack Obama will be elected the 44th president of the United States, and amoung others, the first African-American president. With Hillary Clinton's inpending doom, I thought I might as well stick with Obama as the Democratic nominee.
As for the 'State to State Races' tour, expect Indiana and Iowa, and possibly others up by tomorrow.
My first projection indicates that Barack Obama will be elected the 44th president of the United States, and amoung others, the first African-American president. With Hillary Clinton's inpending doom, I thought I might as well stick with Obama as the Democratic nominee.
As for the 'State to State Races' tour, expect Indiana and Iowa, and possibly others up by tomorrow.
Happy Mother's Day!
All of those who have been lucky enough to have a hard working, caring, loving, beautiful, and smart mom, whould have a mom like I do. I would love to personally thank my mom for giving me everything and help me develop into the person I am today. I'm sure many of you are just as blessed as I am, and Happy Mother's Day to all of you out there!
State to State Races: Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois
My 'State to State Races' tour continues on as we introduce a few more states, none of which have serious threats in thier states.
First, we will look into Hawaii. Hawaii is known for being far left, even though lately the Republicans have started to get a bit closer here and there. But anyone looking for a change of hands is looking in the wrong state. Democrats should win their seats the whole way down the board, as Hawaii is a safe bet for Democrats in 2008.
Next we can take a look at Idaho. Since Larry Craig is on his way out of the Senate, Republicans will have little to fear in this election. The presidential race won't change hands, nor will the senate or house, and Idaho will be a bright spot for the GOP.
And then there is Illinois. I strongly believe Barack Obama will take the Democrat nomination, but even if he didn't Illinois isn't exactly a danger for Democrats in 08. The Senate seat will not be competitive, and only and a Democrat challenge to Republican Tim Baldermann keeps Illinois a state to watch.
Stay tuned for Indiana, Iowa
First, we will look into Hawaii. Hawaii is known for being far left, even though lately the Republicans have started to get a bit closer here and there. But anyone looking for a change of hands is looking in the wrong state. Democrats should win their seats the whole way down the board, as Hawaii is a safe bet for Democrats in 2008.
Next we can take a look at Idaho. Since Larry Craig is on his way out of the Senate, Republicans will have little to fear in this election. The presidential race won't change hands, nor will the senate or house, and Idaho will be a bright spot for the GOP.
And then there is Illinois. I strongly believe Barack Obama will take the Democrat nomination, but even if he didn't Illinois isn't exactly a danger for Democrats in 08. The Senate seat will not be competitive, and only and a Democrat challenge to Republican Tim Baldermann keeps Illinois a state to watch.
Stay tuned for Indiana, Iowa
Clinton, Obama Battle On Tonight, Note
The race the never-never-ending battle between Clinton and Obama will continue once again tonight as they square off in Indiana and North Carolina. Based on polling, expect yet another split and another reason drag on the Democratic primary. I am looking at both candidates winning by three to five points tonight, as both candidates tout how they are the best candidate for the American people.
Just a quick note, Hawaii and Idaho pages have been completed in the State to State Races, however I have yet to do any analysis on the main page.
Just a quick note, Hawaii and Idaho pages have been completed in the State to State Races, however I have yet to do any analysis on the main page.
State to State Races: Deleware, DC, Florida, Georgia
In Deleware, Democrats will continue to dominate, save the At-Large district held by Republican Mike Castle. Other than that, the Democrats will pick up the three electoral votes, along with sweeping the Govenor and Senate races.
For the District of Columbia, it's three electoral votes will most certainly go to the Democrat, likely carrying 85-90% of the vote.
Moving on to Florida, which is one of the most hotly contested states out there, considering the importance of it's 27 electoral votes. It has no Senate or Governor race, but it should have a couple of fun House races in Districts 16 and 22.
And finally Georgia, which shouldn't have any trouble going to the GOP in the presidential race. Senator Saxby Chambliss looks to be in nice shapes, and the GOP has a couple of oppurtunites to pick up some House seats in Districts 8 and 12.
For the District of Columbia, it's three electoral votes will most certainly go to the Democrat, likely carrying 85-90% of the vote.
Moving on to Florida, which is one of the most hotly contested states out there, considering the importance of it's 27 electoral votes. It has no Senate or Governor race, but it should have a couple of fun House races in Districts 16 and 22.
And finally Georgia, which shouldn't have any trouble going to the GOP in the presidential race. Senator Saxby Chambliss looks to be in nice shapes, and the GOP has a couple of oppurtunites to pick up some House seats in Districts 8 and 12.
State to State Races: California, Colorado, Connecticut
I have three here right now and by the end of the day should few more states completed, as I am trying to make up a bit of time lost while I have a chance.
Lets start with California. This won't be a state that gives you many suprises. The Democrats will win this state's 55 electoral votes, and with no senate or governor race, it will be the same old California. Look for a couple of competitive house races in District 4 and in District 11, however.
Next take a look at Colorado. It wasn't long that even Bob Doyle could take this state for the red without trouble, but Colorado is turning blue quickly, and this should be a highly competitive race in 2008. You also want to take a look at the Open Seat race for the Senate where the GOP and DEM parties have put together strong candidates.
And then there is Connecticut. This state will probably be a bit dull this year as it will go blue in the presidential race. There also is no Senate or Governor race, and only a couple of house seats that 'might' be competitive in the future.
Stay tuned for: Deleware, Flordia, Georgia, DC
Lets start with California. This won't be a state that gives you many suprises. The Democrats will win this state's 55 electoral votes, and with no senate or governor race, it will be the same old California. Look for a couple of competitive house races in District 4 and in District 11, however.
Next take a look at Colorado. It wasn't long that even Bob Doyle could take this state for the red without trouble, but Colorado is turning blue quickly, and this should be a highly competitive race in 2008. You also want to take a look at the Open Seat race for the Senate where the GOP and DEM parties have put together strong candidates.
And then there is Connecticut. This state will probably be a bit dull this year as it will go blue in the presidential race. There also is no Senate or Governor race, and only a couple of house seats that 'might' be competitive in the future.
Stay tuned for: Deleware, Flordia, Georgia, DC
McCain's VP Choices: Obvious, Smart, and Bad
I think John McCain has a variety of avenues to travel down in selecting his Vice-President. I have a few that he could travel down, but who belongs in which one is up for debate.
Obvious Choice: Mick Huckabee
Some could call this 'smart choice', but Mike Huckabee does bring a lot to the table. Barack Obama has polled very well in southern states thus far, including Arkansas, which is a place that could surprise many this year. With him as the VP, the prospects of Arkansas become much more reliable, and may satisfy a very a conservative South that aren't very happy with McCain. A down side is that it does little to excite independent voters that could be key in some states. Others that fit this category include Mitt Romney, and other former GOP hopefuls.
Smart Choice: Joe Lieberman
Yes, yes I could catch some heat for this one, but what could be better for McCain than an Independent Democrat that is very popular with Independents, fairly popular with Democrats, and ok with many Republicans Republicans. Early polls show McCain very competitive in states like Michigan, Oregan, Wisconsion, New Jersey, and New Hampshire among others, and Lieberman could attract just enough to put McCain over the edge. Big draw back is how likely it is that he lose support among conservative voters, who may not show up at all and make some states less competitive.
Bad Choice: Rudy Giuliani
Rudy may be America's mayor, but he would be a very poor choice for vice president. The conservitives in the party would be very angry. So angry that they might not vote in the election, which would be scary in a close election.
Obvious Choice: Mick Huckabee
Some could call this 'smart choice', but Mike Huckabee does bring a lot to the table. Barack Obama has polled very well in southern states thus far, including Arkansas, which is a place that could surprise many this year. With him as the VP, the prospects of Arkansas become much more reliable, and may satisfy a very a conservative South that aren't very happy with McCain. A down side is that it does little to excite independent voters that could be key in some states. Others that fit this category include Mitt Romney, and other former GOP hopefuls.
Smart Choice: Joe Lieberman
Yes, yes I could catch some heat for this one, but what could be better for McCain than an Independent Democrat that is very popular with Independents, fairly popular with Democrats, and ok with many Republicans Republicans. Early polls show McCain very competitive in states like Michigan, Oregan, Wisconsion, New Jersey, and New Hampshire among others, and Lieberman could attract just enough to put McCain over the edge. Big draw back is how likely it is that he lose support among conservative voters, who may not show up at all and make some states less competitive.
Bad Choice: Rudy Giuliani
Rudy may be America's mayor, but he would be a very poor choice for vice president. The conservitives in the party would be very angry. So angry that they might not vote in the election, which would be scary in a close election.
State to State Races: Arizona, Arkansas
The second installment into my State to State Race outlook moves to two states that may be competitive, and at the same time may not be so competitive.
First, lets take a look at Arizona. With McCain as the nominee, it makes be believe that this typical battleground state should lean more toward the GOP side in the presidential race. Arizona will not have a Senate or Governor race this year, but there are a few House races to look in to. District 1 will be an open seat this year, and in an area that is leaning toward the democrats at the moment, it is a place that could be hotly contested. Another race to look at is District 5 where J.D. Hayworth will battle to regain the seat he lost to Harold Mitchell. District 8 may also be one to look at in the future.
Next let's look at Arkansas. Assuming that Obama gets the nomination over Clinton, McCain should be the clear favorite in a state that has been trending Republican in previous elections. Early polls have shown it very close though, so there is no choice but to label it a Weak Hold. Not much else is expected to happen in Arkansas, as popular Senator Mark Pryor looks to cruise to an easy victory and retain his seat for Democrats in the senate. Also, there is no competitive house races at this point and no Governor race will occur in this cycle.
Stay tuned for: California, Colorado
First, lets take a look at Arizona. With McCain as the nominee, it makes be believe that this typical battleground state should lean more toward the GOP side in the presidential race. Arizona will not have a Senate or Governor race this year, but there are a few House races to look in to. District 1 will be an open seat this year, and in an area that is leaning toward the democrats at the moment, it is a place that could be hotly contested. Another race to look at is District 5 where J.D. Hayworth will battle to regain the seat he lost to Harold Mitchell. District 8 may also be one to look at in the future.
Next let's look at Arkansas. Assuming that Obama gets the nomination over Clinton, McCain should be the clear favorite in a state that has been trending Republican in previous elections. Early polls have shown it very close though, so there is no choice but to label it a Weak Hold. Not much else is expected to happen in Arkansas, as popular Senator Mark Pryor looks to cruise to an easy victory and retain his seat for Democrats in the senate. Also, there is no competitive house races at this point and no Governor race will occur in this cycle.
Stay tuned for: California, Colorado
State to State Races: Alabama, Alaska
The first offical look to the 2008 races starts with Alabama and Alaska. I am looking to do two at a time, but if I get short on time, I may have to resort to doing just one. Expect at least two a week until I am finished, although I will do everything possible to do more than that. Click on the highlighted state to view the page. Or simply naviagate throgh the senate page.
In Alabama, John McCain shouldn't have much trouble in defeating the Democratic nominee, especially if it is Clinton that gets the nod. If Obama wins, it will likely be closer, but nothing that McCain should sweat over, at least not at this point. Alabama should also be safe in the senate race, as Jeff Sessions doesn't seem to have much to worry about.
In Alaska, the GOP support will remain solid as it has through previous elections. However, Senator Ted Stevens and Congressmen Don Young are both on the road to strong opposition, as both are having scandal problems at the moment. Both may be retiring, and both may be defeated in the primary, but as long as they are in the race, GOP victories in November are much less than certain.
Stay tuned for: Arizona, Arkansas
In Alabama, John McCain shouldn't have much trouble in defeating the Democratic nominee, especially if it is Clinton that gets the nod. If Obama wins, it will likely be closer, but nothing that McCain should sweat over, at least not at this point. Alabama should also be safe in the senate race, as Jeff Sessions doesn't seem to have much to worry about.
In Alaska, the GOP support will remain solid as it has through previous elections. However, Senator Ted Stevens and Congressmen Don Young are both on the road to strong opposition, as both are having scandal problems at the moment. Both may be retiring, and both may be defeated in the primary, but as long as they are in the race, GOP victories in November are much less than certain.
Stay tuned for: Arizona, Arkansas
2008: State to State Races
Today I started my projections for each state. I decided to start with my home state of Georgia just to get things going and make sure I had everything in place. After today, however, I will by going in order starting with Alabama.
To look at the Georgia page, click here. I would love to know your thoughts on the page and any suggestions would be more than welcome.
To look at the Georgia page, click here. I would love to know your thoughts on the page and any suggestions would be more than welcome.
Battlegrounds, Obama and McCain
Going into the 2008 election, we should see a majority of the battleground states from last election pop up again. What could be intresting, certainly if Obama gets the democratic nomination, is that we could see a string of new battlegrounds appear this cycle. If Obama wins the nomination, I would expect to see much closer races in the south. Maybe not enough to win any, but to force the GOP to have to push money in places the haven't had to in a while. At the same time, McCain gets a lot of benefits from his area also.
Lets start with Obama winning the nomination. Southern states have been pretty favorable to Obama thus far in polling. At this point, Louisiana has been polling tight, along with Arkansas and West Virgina. Missouri and Virgina could also be competitive. On a rather suprising note, Georgia has been very close also. In every case, I still believe that the GOP will win all of these states, even if many are much closer than in previous elections. I have a hard time believing that Georgia will be competitive very long, but it may be 5 or so points better than in the past election.
On McCain, expect him do well in the midwest, especially in his state's neighbor of New Mexico. New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have been doing well for McCain thus far, which is really good news because they are all battleground states. Florida is a place I expect McCain do better also, but he has got to find a way to satisfy the south or his campaign his in deep trouble.
The biggest toss-ups to me are Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsion, Minnisota, Oregan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
I expect all of these to be pretty close, but really look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Those have the potential to really sway the election.
Lets start with Obama winning the nomination. Southern states have been pretty favorable to Obama thus far in polling. At this point, Louisiana has been polling tight, along with Arkansas and West Virgina. Missouri and Virgina could also be competitive. On a rather suprising note, Georgia has been very close also. In every case, I still believe that the GOP will win all of these states, even if many are much closer than in previous elections. I have a hard time believing that Georgia will be competitive very long, but it may be 5 or so points better than in the past election.
On McCain, expect him do well in the midwest, especially in his state's neighbor of New Mexico. New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have been doing well for McCain thus far, which is really good news because they are all battleground states. Florida is a place I expect McCain do better also, but he has got to find a way to satisfy the south or his campaign his in deep trouble.
The biggest toss-ups to me are Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsion, Minnisota, Oregan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
I expect all of these to be pretty close, but really look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Those have the potential to really sway the election.
What Will Happen?
Tonight I am leaning towards Hillary having a good day, at least good enough to stay in the race. I wouldn't even be suprised if Hillary turns the tide tonight and keeps us all guessing.
John McCain could wrap up the delegate count tonight and end the needlessly prolonged campaign of Mike Huckabee. Despite that, you have to admit that his Saturday Night Live Skit was pretty funny.
John McCain could wrap up the delegate count tonight and end the needlessly prolonged campaign of Mike Huckabee. Despite that, you have to admit that his Saturday Night Live Skit was pretty funny.
Expect Updated Graphs, Poll Numbers, Quick Note
All the graphs should be updated within the next couple of days. It has been really slow since I haven't had much need for new projections. At this point, I'm liking Obama's chances more and more. Clinton's campaign has just lost it's swagger, while Obama, who has now taken the delegate lead, continues to press his message of change and hope. It's starting to look more and more like an Obama/McCain matchup to me at the very least.
The poll on the right sidebar is still going and I can't help but try to push you guys to vote in it. The poll is stating what you believe will be the legacy of George W. Bush. Right now, the top result is a complete 'Failure', while the number two result is 'Above Average'. Make sure to vote if you haven't already.
I thought I might as well tell you that I am starting to come closer to gearing up for the 2008 Election setup, and that is when the fun really begins.
The poll on the right sidebar is still going and I can't help but try to push you guys to vote in it. The poll is stating what you believe will be the legacy of George W. Bush. Right now, the top result is a complete 'Failure', while the number two result is 'Above Average'. Make sure to vote if you haven't already.
I thought I might as well tell you that I am starting to come closer to gearing up for the 2008 Election setup, and that is when the fun really begins.
Romney Calls it Quits
As of today, John McCain is almost a lock to be the Republican candidate for president. With that fact, McCain now moves to a national campaign that will pit him againist either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, which could go to the convention.
Not long ago, McCain was out. So out that he was taken out of the top candidates to win the election, including yours truely. McCain's sudden rise seems to date back to the Joe Lieberman endorsement. Although he was out of Iowa, he was able to fight off Romney and take the New Hampshire crown. Certianly his defining moment came in South Carolina when McCain and Huckabee virtually fought for the frount runner spot and McCain came through again. By the time Flordia ended, and Romney gave his last gasp(pouring millions of dollars in the process), McCain shined and there was no longer any denying him.
For Romney, the miracle he needed for Super Tuesday ended with less than impressive, even being bested by a fading Mike Huckabee in many cases, it was over.
Lucky for Republicans, he decided to drop now rather than drag things along any further. Now the only question is, Clinton or Obama?
Not long ago, McCain was out. So out that he was taken out of the top candidates to win the election, including yours truely. McCain's sudden rise seems to date back to the Joe Lieberman endorsement. Although he was out of Iowa, he was able to fight off Romney and take the New Hampshire crown. Certianly his defining moment came in South Carolina when McCain and Huckabee virtually fought for the frount runner spot and McCain came through again. By the time Flordia ended, and Romney gave his last gasp(pouring millions of dollars in the process), McCain shined and there was no longer any denying him.
For Romney, the miracle he needed for Super Tuesday ended with less than impressive, even being bested by a fading Mike Huckabee in many cases, it was over.
Lucky for Republicans, he decided to drop now rather than drag things along any further. Now the only question is, Clinton or Obama?
Super Tuesday Picks:
I should note that Obama has already won Georgia, with my pick for the republican is Huckabee.
Here is all the state picks:
Alabama: Huckabee, Obama
Alaska: McCain?, Clinton?
Arizona: McCain, Clinton
Arkansas: Huckabee, Clinton
California: Romney, Obama
Colorodo: Romney, Clinton
Connecticut: McCain, Obama
Delaware: McCain, Clinton
Georgia: Huckabee, Obama
Idaho: Romney, Obama
Illinois: McCain, Obama
Kansas: -
Mass: McCain, Clinton
Minnesota: McCain, Clinton
Missouri: McCain, Obama
Montana: Romney, Clinton
New Jersey: McCain, Clinton
New Mexico: McCain, Obama
New York: McCain, Clinton
North Dakota: McCain?, Clinton?
Oklahoma: McCain, Clinton
Tennessee: Huckabee, Clinton
Utah: Romney, Clinton
West Virginia: Huckabee, Clinton
Let's see what happen!
Update: Huckabee has been called for West Virgina during the time of the writing of this article also.
Here is all the state picks:
Alabama: Huckabee, Obama
Alaska: McCain?, Clinton?
Arizona: McCain, Clinton
Arkansas: Huckabee, Clinton
California: Romney, Obama
Colorodo: Romney, Clinton
Connecticut: McCain, Obama
Delaware: McCain, Clinton
Georgia: Huckabee, Obama
Idaho: Romney, Obama
Illinois: McCain, Obama
Kansas: -
Mass: McCain, Clinton
Minnesota: McCain, Clinton
Missouri: McCain, Obama
Montana: Romney, Clinton
New Jersey: McCain, Clinton
New Mexico: McCain, Obama
New York: McCain, Clinton
North Dakota: McCain?, Clinton?
Oklahoma: McCain, Clinton
Tennessee: Huckabee, Clinton
Utah: Romney, Clinton
West Virginia: Huckabee, Clinton
Let's see what happen!
Update: Huckabee has been called for West Virgina during the time of the writing of this article also.
The Day Before Super Tuesday!
Just a quick note. Expect my predictions on Super Tuesday just before it begins tomorrow. Based on the latest polls, it should be a good day for McCain, with the Democrats going in any possible direction.
Also instead of percentages, I will simply do state by state winners. I'm looking forward to a great day!
Also instead of percentages, I will simply do state by state winners. I'm looking forward to a great day!
Graphs Updated, New Poll
Just so you guys know, all the graphs have been updated on every page and can be seen through the 'Primaries and Candidates' page on the right.
Also I have a new poll up on what you feel will be the legacy of President George W. Bush, which is also on the right side of the site.
God Bless
Also I have a new poll up on what you feel will be the legacy of President George W. Bush, which is also on the right side of the site.
God Bless
McCain Gets Another Big Win, Edorsements, Hillary/Obama
John McCain got a huge win in Florida, and now seems to be the odds on favorite of taking the GOP nomination. Wait, wasn't this the guy that not long ago I said would be better off dropping out than taking the embarrassment? Well, even if it isn't Republican's best choice, it is the smart choice. McCain has led all democrats in 6 straight polls. No other Republican nominee has even led a democrats.
McCain certainly benefited from the Crist endorsement, and now that he has won Florida, he went on to pick up a couple more yesterday. Rudy drops out of the race and goes to McCain. This will be helpful in the liberal states that Giuliani leaves behind. He also got the endorsement of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, another moderate to help out that area of his campaign.
Another big event yesterday was John Edwards droping out of the race. That virually leaves the race completely on Clinton and Obama. The real question is who does Edwards endorse(if he does at all), or at the very least where does his votes go. For the Democrats, this race could go all the way to the convention.
McCain certainly benefited from the Crist endorsement, and now that he has won Florida, he went on to pick up a couple more yesterday. Rudy drops out of the race and goes to McCain. This will be helpful in the liberal states that Giuliani leaves behind. He also got the endorsement of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, another moderate to help out that area of his campaign.
Another big event yesterday was John Edwards droping out of the race. That virually leaves the race completely on Clinton and Obama. The real question is who does Edwards endorse(if he does at all), or at the very least where does his votes go. For the Democrats, this race could go all the way to the convention.
Last Second Flordia Pick
I have gone back and forth all day on who will take the Florida primary for Republicans. I have a bad feeling that Giuliani will take enough votes from McCain to give Romney the win, but somehow, based on the last polls in Florida that McCain will pull out a 1-3 point victory.
McCain: 24% Romney: 22% Giuliani: 19% Huckabee: 17% Other: 18%
On the democratic side, expect an easy win for Clinton, 15-20 point win.
Clinton: 50% Obama: 30% Edwards: 15% Other: 5%
McCain: 24% Romney: 22% Giuliani: 19% Huckabee: 17% Other: 18%
On the democratic side, expect an easy win for Clinton, 15-20 point win.
Clinton: 50% Obama: 30% Edwards: 15% Other: 5%
Huge Turnout for Obama
Yesterday was quite a day for Obama. I didn't even bother putting up projections yesterday as Obama seem to be a clear favorite, but not only did he win, he blew Clinton out of the water.
Anyone that thought Clinton had this one wrapped up could be in for an crude awakening. With this election season, it seems as though everything you think is going to happen goes the complete other direction.
Stay tuned for Florida projections coming up soon.
Anyone that thought Clinton had this one wrapped up could be in for an crude awakening. With this election season, it seems as though everything you think is going to happen goes the complete other direction.
Stay tuned for Florida projections coming up soon.
Martin Luther King Day, Computer Problems, Late Predictions
First off, Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day to all of you, and let us never forget what he did for our country and the breakthroughs that took place due to his works.
As for all the missed projections and absence of updates, the problems have continued on my computer and has prevented me from updating the same way I usually would. Good news is, the problems seem to be gone and all of my charts should be updated within the day.
If you are curious on what my predictions would have been here are who the winner and runner-ups I expected.
Michigan-
1.John McCain 2. Mitt Romney
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama
Nevada-
1. Mitt Romney 2. Ron Paul
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama
South Carolina-
1. Mike Huckabee 2. John McCain
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama
As you can see I wouldn't have done so well on the Republican side, although I was dead on on the Democratic side. I should be good to go from here on out, so keep checking in.
UPDATE: The charts HAVE been updated on the main page, but the additional ones have yet to be done. Those should be done in the next couple of days.
As for all the missed projections and absence of updates, the problems have continued on my computer and has prevented me from updating the same way I usually would. Good news is, the problems seem to be gone and all of my charts should be updated within the day.
If you are curious on what my predictions would have been here are who the winner and runner-ups I expected.
Michigan-
1.John McCain 2. Mitt Romney
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama
Nevada-
1. Mitt Romney 2. Ron Paul
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama
South Carolina-
1. Mike Huckabee 2. John McCain
1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama
As you can see I wouldn't have done so well on the Republican side, although I was dead on on the Democratic side. I should be good to go from here on out, so keep checking in.
UPDATE: The charts HAVE been updated on the main page, but the additional ones have yet to be done. Those should be done in the next couple of days.
Updates, New Hampshire Predictions
Goodness, I have had all sorts of trouble posting lately and I'm finally able to get it rolling. The graphs HAVE been updated and they can be seen on the Presidential Primaries page.
And now for my New Hampshire predictions:
And now for my New Hampshire predictions:
Democratic: Obama: 40% Clinton: 30% John Edwards: 15% Other: 15%
Republican: McCain: 38% Romney: 30% Huckabee: 11% Paul: 11% Giuliani: 8% Hunter: 2%
I did shockingly well for the Iowa prediction, and so I'm hoping for good things tonight.
More Extended Predictions:
Again, here are my final picks. I have made some serious last second changes, so it is a bit different. I am very interested in how well I do.
Republican:
Mike Huckabee: 34% Mitt Romney: 25% John McCain: 13% F Thompson: 12% Ron Paul: 7% Rudy Giuliani: 5% Other: 4%
Democrat:
Barack Obama: 32% John Edwards: 31% Hillary Clinton: 30% Other: 7%
UPDATE: Some of you that are confused on the process of the Iowa Caucuses for Republicans and Democrats should take a look at Wake Up America. I found his article helpful. And those who are looking for more predictions, Election Projection has a list of all those who have made picks.
New Hampshire Latest of Romney's Worries
With two straight polls showing McCain up in New Hampshire by six, suddenly it has become a make or break in Iowa for Romney. I've heard very little of McCain for a while, but ever since he grabbed the support of Joe Lieberman, he has taken off in New Hampshire and now finds himself ahead nationally also. I will go ahead and conclude that if Romney doesn't find a way to win in Iowa he is not likely to win a state other than Utah. Even if Romney wins Iowa, McCain still has a good chance to win in New Hampshire, so Iowa is certainly the make or break for Romney 2008 presidential campaign.
Latest polls in Iowa:
- Zogby(12-31): M Huckabee: 28 M Romney: 26 J McCain: 12
- Strategic Vision(12-30): M Romney: 30 M Huckabee: 28 J McCain: 16
- CNN/Time(12-30): M Romney: 31 M Huckabee: 28 F Thompson: 13%
- Selzer & Co(12-30): M Huckabee: 32 M Romney: 26 J McCain: 13
Latest Polls in New Hampshire:
- Franklin Pierce(12-31): J McCain: 37 M Romney: 31 R. Giliani: 10
- Suffolk(12-31): J McCain: 31 M Romney: 25 R. Giuliani: 14
- U of New Hampshie(12-30): J McCain: 29 M Romney: 29 R. Giuliani: 12
Note: Expect Causcus Results Tonight
Ready to Start
We've been waiting and now the time is here. You will notice that on the right that the 'Candidate' page and 'Primaries' page has been combined. The Primary section I had origionally intended to show all the results of each primary, but it became very difficult and it will be much easier to show the results this way and get important information on each candidate at the same time.
Every time there is about to be a Causcus or Primary, I get to make my calls and here it is for Iowa.
Iowa(Democratic):
B. Obama-33% H. Clinton-29% J. Edwards-29% Other-8%
Iowa(Republican):
M. Huckabee-32% M. Romney-29% F. Thompson-12% J. McCain-9% R. Giuliani-8% Other-10%
Now, these predictions are based on personal evaulation, not a system that led me to this projection. I don't have a system for the primary, so alot of this revolves around a variety of polls and some personal opinion.
Every time there is about to be a Causcus or Primary, I get to make my calls and here it is for Iowa.
Iowa(Democratic):
B. Obama-33% H. Clinton-29% J. Edwards-29% Other-8%
Iowa(Republican):
M. Huckabee-32% M. Romney-29% F. Thompson-12% J. McCain-9% R. Giuliani-8% Other-10%
Now, these predictions are based on personal evaulation, not a system that led me to this projection. I don't have a system for the primary, so alot of this revolves around a variety of polls and some personal opinion.
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